ULTA Should I Buy
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$
0.000
0.000(0.000%)
At close0.000(0.000%)Aft-market
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Not a good buy right now at 646 post-market for an impatient buyer. Fundamentals and analyst sentiment are strongly positive, but the near-term technical setup is still below the key pivot (660.75) with bearish MACD momentum, and congress activity is net selling. I would wait for either (1) a clean reclaim/hold above 660–661 to confirm trend resumption, or (2) a pullback closer to support (634) with stabilization for a better risk/reward entry.
Price/levels: ULTA is ~646, below the pivot at 660.75. Immediate support is S1 ~633.86 (then ~617.25) and resistance is 687.64 then 704.25. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-6.952) but contracting (bearish momentum is easing, not yet bullish). RSI: RSI(6) ~43.8 (neutral-to-slightly weak; not oversold). Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest consolidation/indecision rather than a clear uptrend continuation. Tactical read: This looks like a bounce/consolidation attempt after weakness, but not a confirmed breakout. A move back above 660.75 improves the long bias; losing ~633 risks a quick drop toward ~617. Pattern stats provided: Similar-pattern stats imply a modest upside bias over the next week (+4.01%) but a negative skew over the next month (-3.74%), consistent with “near-term pop, medium-term digestion.”
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Wall Street backdrop is very bullish: multiple upgrades/target raises in January, including Strong Buy upgrade and several targets clustered ~750–
International expansion catalyst: first UAE store opening Jan 29, 2026, with stated plans for additional regional expansion (Dubai Mall, Jeddah) by
Category momentum: analysts cite solid holiday trends, accelerating square-footage growth, and confidence in FY26 product/newness pipeline (including Rare Beauty launch referenced by Oppenheimer).
Technical overhang: price is still below the key pivot (660.
with MACD still negative; near-term downside opens if ~633 fails.
Elevated implied volatility (IV percentile ~91.
reflects heightened uncertainty; market is paying up for protection.
Congress trading (last 90 days): 0 buys vs 2 sells (median ~$0.8M) reads as cautious/negative signaling.
Competitive/investment pressure: BofA stays Neutral and highlights the need for continued investments to combat competitive threats—this can weigh on near-term profitability.
Latest quarter: 2026/Q3. Growth: Revenue $2.858B, +12.95% YoY (strong top-line momentum). Profitability: Net income $230.9M, -4.67% YoY (profits lag revenue, consistent with investment/expense pressure). EPS: $5.14, ~flat YoY (0.00% growth). Margins: Gross margin 40.44%, +1.74% YoY (margin improvement at the gross level, but not flowing through to net income yet). Overall: strong demand, but operating costs/investments appear to be dampening bottom-line growth.
Recent trend: decisively upward. January saw a wave of upgrades and large price target increases (e.g., Raymond James upgrade to Strong Buy with PT 790 from 605; Piper to 775 from 615; TD Cowen to 775; UBS to 780; Oppenheimer to 750; multiple others raised). Wall Street pros: strong category demand, accelerating store growth, credible FY26 initiatives/newness pipeline, confidence in leadership execution. Wall Street cons: competitive intensity requires ongoing investment (pressure on near-term earnings leverage), and the stock’s re-rating means execution must stay strong to justify higher targets.
