UGI Should I Buy
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UGI is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The chart is still broadly bullish (stacked moving averages), but momentum is cooling (MACD histogram contracting) and RSI is near overbought (~70.7). Options positioning is notably defensive (high put open-interest skew), and recent fundamentals (FY2025 Q4) were weak with a loss and declining revenue. I’d wait for a quick dip closer to ~39.1 (pivot support) before buying; at ~40.1 the risk/reward isn’t attractive enough given the bearish options skew and upcoming earnings on 2026-02-04.
Trend/structure: Bullish moving-average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) signals the primary trend remains up.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.298) but positively contracting, suggesting upside momentum is fading rather than accelerating.
RSI: RSI_6 at 70.66 is near overbought; that often precedes consolidation/pullback rather than a clean continuation.
Key levels: Pivot support ~39.108 (first area to buy a dip). Below that, S1 ~37.399. Near-term resistance R1 ~40.818, then R2 ~41.874—price (40.1) is closer to resistance than support.
Pattern-based expectation: Similar-pattern stats imply modest upside next week (+1.55%) but a negative next-month bias (-1.97%), reinforcing the idea that upside may be limited near-term.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Gross margin improved in FY2025 Q4 (38.01%, +4.68% YoY), which can support earnings recovery if volumes stabilize.
No supportive news flow in the past week; no obvious event-driven upside catalyst before earnings.
Latest quarter: FY2025 Q4. Revenue fell to $1.197B (-3.62% YoY). Profitability deteriorated sharply: net income -$13M (-95.24% YoY) with EPS -0.06 (-95.28% YoY). The main bright spot was gross margin expansion to 38.01% (+4.68% YoY), suggesting cost/price mix improved, but it hasn’t translated into bottom-line growth yet.
Recent change: On 2025-12-15, Mizuho (Gabriel Moreen) raised UGI’s price target to $44 from $41 and maintained Outperform, citing post-Q4 momentum and favorable risk/reward. Wall Street pro view (pros): believes shares offer asymmetric upside and that operational momentum can continue. Wall Street con view (cons based on current data): recent quarter showed declining revenue and a loss, and options positioning is skewed defensive—suggesting the market is not fully convinced about near-term upside. Influential trading check: Hedge funds and insiders are reported Neutral recently; no recent Congress trading data available.
