UFPI Should I Buy
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UFPI is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. The chart’s longer-term structure is still constructive (bullish moving averages), but near-term momentum is deteriorating (MACD histogram negative and expanding) and price is below the key pivot (104.788). Fundamentals in the latest quarter (2025/Q3) weakened notably YoY, and the lone recent analyst action maintains a Hold with a $98 target (below the current ~$103). With no Intellectia buy signals today and earnings approaching on 2026-02-16, the risk/reward for an immediate entry is unfavorable; I would avoid new buys here.
Trend/structure: Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating the broader trend is still up. Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.516 and negatively expanding, signaling weakening near-term momentum/possible pullback pressure. RSI_6 at 48.24 is neutral (no oversold bounce signal). Levels: Current ~103.28 is below the pivot at 104.788 (near-term bearish bias until reclaimed). Nearby support is S1 101.637 (then S2 99.69); resistance is R1 107.94 (then R2 109.887). Pattern-based forward stats provided imply mild downside risk next day (60% chance to -0.9%) but more positive odds over the next week (+2.77%) and month (+1.3%); however, the current momentum (MACD) argues the entry is not clean today.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Brand/marketing catalyst: Deckorators (UFPI brand) expanded PGA TOUR sponsorship/activation for the 2026 season, including presence at major events and the International Builders' Show—supportive for brand visibility and premium positioning. Technical upside trigger: A reclaim of the 104.788 pivot and push toward 107.94 could shift short-term momentum back upward. Options positioning: Extremely low put/call OI suggests the market is not defensively positioned (bullish backdrop if price starts trending up).
Fundamental deterioration in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3): revenue, EPS, net income and gross margin all declined YoY. Analyst stance is not supportive at current levels: Stifel kept Hold and raised PT to $98, still below the current ~$103 (implies downside on their view). Event risk ahead: Next earnings (QDEC
on 2026-02-16 after hours can produce a sharp move; with momentum already soft, that’s not ideal for an impatient entry.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue fell to 1.5596B (-5.44% YoY). Net income fell to 72.52M (-24.44% YoY). EPS fell to 1.29 (-21.34% YoY). Gross margin declined to 16.84 (-6.91% YoY). Summary: Growth trend is negative across top line, profitability, and margins, indicating operating pressure rather than a simple one-off. This weak YoY profile reduces the attractiveness of buying aggressively at current price without a clear technical/earnings catalyst.
Recent change: On 2025-11-03, Stifel raised its price target to $98 from $95 but maintained a Hold rating after Q3 results, citing market uncertainty as the key impediment. Wall Street pros/cons view: Pros—some confidence implied by the modest PT raise post-Q3; business positioning/brands (e.g., Deckorators) can support longer-term demand. Cons—rating remains Hold and the $98 target is below today’s price (~$103), suggesting limited upside and/or valuation/uncertainty concerns in the near term.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available. Hedge funds and insiders: both Neutral with no significant recent trends, providing no strong confirmation signal.
