UAMY Should I Buy
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UAMY is not a good buy right now. The stock just suffered a sharp -11.58% regular-session drop and is trading 7.29 post-market, which is below the key S1 support (7.656). With momentum still deteriorating (negative, expanding MACD histogram) and a macro/news-driven selloff hitting critical-minerals names, the higher-probability near-term path is further downside or choppy base-building toward the next support zone (6.53). For an impatient buyer who doesn’t want to wait for an optimal entry, the setup is unfavorable today—avoid/stand aside rather than chase a falling move.
Trend/price action: Strong downside shock today (regular -11.58%), and price (7.29) is now below S1 (7.656), signaling a support break and increasing odds of a test of S2 (6.533). Momentum: MACD histogram -0.141 and negatively expanding = bearish momentum still strengthening. RSI(6) ~31.4 = near-oversold, but not showing a confirmed reversal signal by itself. Moving averages: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 is structurally bullish, but today’s breakdown suggests the short-term trend is overriding the moving-average stack (risk of mean-reversion lower before any rebound). Levels: Pivot 9.475 is the key ‘trend reclaim’ level; until price recovers and holds above ~7.656 (S1) at minimum, the technical posture remains weak.
Analyst support: H.C. Wainwright reiterated Buy and raised PT to $10.25 (from $8.
citing stronger antimony demand and the National Defense Stockpile order.
Company-specific demand narrative: Antimony is a critical-material theme with defense-related demand potential.
Near-oversold RSI could allow a technical bounce if price quickly reclaims broken support (~7.66).
News-driven sector shock (2026-01-29): Administration abandoning/limiting price support for U.S. critical mining projects triggered a sell-off in rare earth/critical minerals stocks—near-term sentiment headwind for UAMY.
Technical damage: Large single-day drawdown and break below S1 (7.
increases probability of continuation to S2 (~6.53).
Probabilistic trend model: Similar-pattern read suggests slightly negative drift over the next day/week.
Upcoming earnings (QDEC 2025 on 2026-02-11 AH): can add uncertainty into an already high-volatility setup.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to ~$8.70M (+238.31% YoY), showing strong top-line growth. Profitability is still weak: Net income remained negative at about -$4.78M (improved vs prior year per YoY change), and EPS was -$0.04 (improved YoY). Gross margin improved to ~23.14% (+40.41% YoY), which is constructive, but the company is not yet consistently profitable—making the stock more sensitive to policy/news shocks and momentum selling.
Recent trend: Coverage cited is positive and improving—on 2025-11-13, H.C. Wainwright maintained a Buy and raised the price target to $10.25 from $8.50 after Q3, highlighting the National Defense Stockpile antimony order and strengthening demand. Wall Street pros: Strong revenue growth and strategic-material/defense demand narrative support upside. Wall Street cons: Ongoing net losses and high volatility make the equity vulnerable to macro/policy changes; today’s breakdown suggests near-term execution of the bull case is being delayed by sentiment and technical damage.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge fund and insider trend indicators are neutral with no notable recent activity.
