UAL Should I Buy
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UAL is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. Price is sitting on first support (~102.15) with bearish momentum (MACD histogram negative and expanding), so odds favor more near-term downside toward ~98.46 before a cleaner entry. While Wall Street remains strongly bullish with rising targets and Q4’25 growth was solid, the tape is still weak and insiders are selling more aggressively.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Trend/Momentum: Bearish short-term. MACD histogram is -1.504 and negatively expanding (downtrend pressure increasing). RSI-6 is ~23.5 (effectively oversold/washed-out conditions), which can support a bounce, but it’s not a buy trigger by itself without a momentum turn.
Levels: Pivot 108.12 overhead is the first key reclaim level. Immediate support S1 ~102.15 is being tested (post-market ~102.28). If S1 breaks, next support is S2 ~98.46. Resistance: R1 114.10 then R2 117.79.
Price path implication: This is a ‘near support but still falling’ setup—good for nimble dip-traders only after confirmation (e.g., MACD flattening/turn + reclaim above pivot), not ideal for an impatient entry.
Analyst optimism is broad-based with multiple recent target increases and reiterated Buy/Outperform/Overweight ratings, implying pros expect beats/raises if demand stays strong.
Company-specific operating expansion: United plans ~750 daily flights at Chicago O’Hare (network expansion / capacity deployment could support revenue).
Latest quarter (2025/Q
showed continued growth: revenue +4.78% YoY, net income +5.99% YoY, EPS +7.77% YoY.
Technical pressure remains negative (bearish MACD expansion) and price is hovering on support—risk of a quick flush toward ~98.
Insider activity: insiders are selling, and selling amount increased 121.33% over the last month (sentiment headwind).
Margins: gross margin down -2.44% YoY in 2025/Q4, suggesting cost/price mix pressure despite revenue/EPS growth.
Near-term pattern stats indicate slightly negative bias next day/week (expected -0.35% next day, -0.58% next week).
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Recent trend: Strongly positive and getting more bullish. Multiple firms raised price targets in January (BofA to 145, UBS to 147, Citi to 153, Morgan Stanley to 150, Susquehanna to 150, Bernstein to 136, BMO to 132.5, TD Cowen to 140). One minor negative datapoint: Argus trimmed target to 135 from 140 but kept Buy.
Wall Street pros (bull case): Premium demand strength, conservative guidance that could be beat/raised, loyalty/co-brand and ancillary revenue runway, and favorable early demand indicators. Wall Street cons (what’s implied by the data): Near-term industry volatility/noise and cost pressures (consistent with margin dip), plus the stock’s current technical weakness.
