TYL Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now. TYL is in a confirmed short-term downtrend (bearish moving averages and a worsening MACD), and today’s breakdown below the first support zone suggests sellers still control the tape. While the stock is extremely oversold (RSI_6 ~11) and could bounce sharply, there’s no Intellectia buy signal to prioritize and options flow shows heavy put activity today—so the risk of further downside before any durable reversal is still elevated. For an impatient buyer, the odds favor a better risk/reward after price stabilizes back above ~$380 (former support) or after a reversal signal appears.
Trend/price action: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), signaling a persistent downtrend. The regular session drop (-2.79%) pushed price to $369, below S1 (380.34) and closer to S2 (361.53), implying prior support has failed and could act as resistance on any bounce.
Momentum: MACD histogram is -6.477 and negatively expanding, confirming downside momentum is still increasing. RSI_6 at ~11.46 is deeply oversold, which increases the probability of a short-term relief bounce, but oversold can persist in strong downtrends.
Levels: Immediate support is S2 ~361.53; if that breaks, downside can accelerate. First meaningful reclaim level is ~380.34 (S1). Pivot/resistance sits much higher (410.80), indicating the stock would need a sizable move to meaningfully repair the chart.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
on 2026-02-17 after hours can act as a catalyst if results/guidance surprise positively.
Options tape today is bearish: Put volume dominates (put/call volume 2.29), indicating near-term hedging/speculation to the downside.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue: $595.9M, +9.67% YoY (steady top-line growth). Net income: $84.4M, +11.19% YoY (profit growth outpacing revenue). EPS: $1.93, +10.92% YoY (consistent earnings expansion). Gross margin: 44.85, +8.99% YoY (margin improvement supports quality of growth).
Recent trend: Mixed but leaning constructive on fundamentals; price targets have generally moved lower in the last few months (notably Oppenheimer $600→$510 and Wells Fargo $525→$470; others also trimmed), reflecting sector multiple compression/AI narrative risk. Pros (Wall St. bull case): Tyler is viewed as a leading public-sector software vendor with durable demand, recurring revenue potential, cloud migration tailwinds, and margin expansion opportunity. Cons (Wall St. bear case): Valuation/multiple compression risk, softer SaaS bookings comparisons, and broader software sentiment deterioration tied to AI disruption concerns. Net: Ratings include several Buys/initiations, but the direction of targets has been downward recently—supportive long-term story, cautious near-term tape.
