TXT Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now. TXT is technically weak (bearish momentum, trading below the key pivot) and the near-term narrative is dominated by the 2026 profit guidance miss that just drove a sharp selloff. Even though the stock is getting oversold and options positioning is call-heavy, there’s no Intellectia buy signal today, and both hedge funds and insiders are materially net sellers—making the risk/reward unattractive for an impatient buyer at current levels (~88).
Price/levels: Post-market ~88.1, below the Pivot 91.309 (bearish control). Nearest support S1 ~86.473 (then S2 ~83.485); resistance at 91.309 then R1 ~96.145. Momentum: MACD histogram -1.015 and negatively expanding = bearish momentum still strengthening. RSI: RSI_6 at 29.341 (effectively oversold/near-oversold), which can support a short-term bounce, but it’s not a trend reversal by itself. Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest consolidation after a drop, but not a confirmed uptrend. Pattern-based forward bias: Similar-pattern stats imply ~-3.68% over the next week (near-term downside risk still elevated).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Q4 2025 results showed strong growth: revenue up ~16% YoY to ~$4.18B and EPS up sharply (per financial snapshot). Aviation segment strength was a key driver.
Congress trading (last 90 days): 2 purchases, 0 sales (median ~$0.8M), a supportive signal from policymakers.
Analyst price targets are mostly above the current price (~88), implying upside if guidance improves or the market re-rates.
Primary overhang: 2026 profit/earnings guidance came in below expectations, triggering a sharp post-earnings selloff (news indicates -4% to ~-8%).
Trading trends: Hedge funds are selling (selling amount +256.25% QoQ) and insiders are selling (+317.08% MoM), which is a meaningful near-term bearish signal.
Technicals: Bearish MACD expansion and price below pivot suggest the down-move may not be finished; support at ~86.5 could be tested.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Growth: Revenue $4.175B (+15.55% YoY), Net Income $235M (+66.67% YoY), EPS $1.33 (+75% YoY) — strong top-line and earnings growth. Concern: Gross margin reported at 6.9, down -73.45% YoY, which points to margin compression/mix or cost pressure (and aligns with why forward guidance disappointed despite revenue strength).
Recent trend: Ratings remain broadly neutral (Equal Weight/Neutral/Market Perform) rather than bullish upgrades. Price targets: Morgan Stanley raised PT to $92 (from $86) on Q4/model update; Bernstein raised to $94 (from $90); Citi initiated at $91 (Neutral) then lowered PT to $97 (from $107) while staying Neutral. Wall Street pros: Strong aerospace demand and solid Q4 execution (especially Aviation). Wall Street cons: Cautious 2026 profitability outlook/guidance and limited near-term catalysts to re-accelerate earnings; hence the persistence of neutral stances.
