TW Should I Buy
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$
0.000
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At close0.000(0.000%)Aft-market
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Not a good buy right now. TW’s near-term setup is bearish (moving averages stacked bearishly and MACD weakening), and the probability model also points to slight downside over the next week/month. With no Intellectia buy signals today and earnings (QDEC 2025) on 2026-02-05 pre-market as the next major catalyst, I would avoid initiating a new position at the current ~$103 level; best action is HOLD/WAIT rather than BUY.
Trend is bearish to neutral in the very near term. The moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating price is below key trend levels. MACD histogram is negative (-0.113) and expanding lower, suggesting downside momentum is increasing rather than stabilizing. RSI(6) at 41 is neutral-to-weak (not oversold), so there’s room for more downside before a typical mean-reversion bounce. Key levels: support S1 ~102.23 then S2 ~100.90; resistance pivot ~104.38 then R1 ~106.53. Price (103.1 post-market) is sitting just above first support; a break below ~102.2 increases risk of a slide toward ~100.9. Stock-pattern odds provided also lean slightly negative (next week -0.7%, next month -1.48%).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Strong operational positioning: Tradeweb cited as leading platform in U.S. electronic high-grade credit markets and meaningful share in U.S. Treasury trading volume (news summary).
Potential volatility/tape improvement: management commentary expects volatility normalization and December volume strength (news summary).
Fundamental momentum heading into the next print: 2025/Q3 showed strong YoY growth in revenue, net income, and EPS.
Upcoming earnings (QDEC
on 2026-02-05 pre-market could serve as an upside catalyst if volumes/guide surprise positively.
Technical trend is currently bearish (MA stack + weakening MACD), making near-term risk/reward unattractive for an impatient entry.
Options market is pricing elevated near-term movement (high IV percentile), which often coincides with event risk around earnings.
Recent narrative risk: prior mention of reduced trading activity contributing to stock weakness (news summary context).
The provided stock-pattern projection tilts modestly negative over 1-week/1-month horizons.
No supportive “buy” confirmation from Intellectia signals today (no AI Stock Picker or SwingMax entry).
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to $508.6M (+13.29% YoY), net income rose to $183.4M (+61.08% YoY), and EPS increased to $0.85 (+60.38% YoY). This is a strong profitability acceleration relative to revenue growth (operating leverage improving), which is fundamentally bullish longer-term even though the near-term price trend is weak.
Recent Street trend is mixed but leans constructive overall. UBS raised its price target to $145 (from $135) and kept a Buy (positive, citing strong December setup into 2026). Barclays is more cautious: it raised PT slightly to $124 but maintains Equal Weight, and previously downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight with a lower PT ($121 from $132) on valuation/fair-value concerns and a tougher fixed-income trading environment. Morgan Stanley remains Equal Weight with a modest PT lift ($119). Net: Wall Street ‘pros’ emphasize strong volumes/positioning and earnings leverage; ‘cons’ focus on valuation premium and a potentially more challenging forward environment for fixed-income trading activity.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders are reported Neutral with no significant recent trends.
