TSN Should I Buy
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Buy now for a near-term bullish continuation into the Feb 2 (pre-market) earnings catalyst. The trend is up (bullish MA stack and positive MACD), hedge funds are accumulating aggressively, and analyst targets have been revised higher into 2026. While TSN is short-term stretched (RSI elevated and price pressing resistance), the setup still favors an upside attempt toward ~66.7–67 if earnings sentiment holds.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Politicians / influential figure activity: No recent congress trading data available; insiders are neutral with no notable recent trend.
Trend: Bullish. Moving averages are aligned positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating an established uptrend. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.521) but contracting, suggesting upside momentum is still present but cooling. Overbought/extension: RSI(6) at ~76 is elevated (short-term overbought risk), consistent with price being extended after a run. Levels: Pivot support ~62.79, near-term support S1 ~60.35. Resistance: R1 ~65.23 (already reclaimed in post-market at ~65.75) and next key resistance R2 ~66.74. A clean hold above ~65.23 keeps the trend constructive; the next upside objective is ~66.74. Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern historical analog suggests a favorable bias (reported 80% chance of modest gains across 1D/1W/1M horizons).
Upcoming earnings on 2026-02-02 (pre-market) with EPS est. ~0.94–1.01 and TSN having beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time over the past two years; could support a pre-earnings bid. Plant closures/capacity rationalization narrative has supported the stock and could continue improving margins/efficiency. Hedge funds are reported as buying aggressively quarter-over-quarter, supporting demand for shares. Analyst price targets have been raised into late 2025/early 2026, including BMO upgrade to Outperform with a $67 target, reinforcing a more constructive Street stance.
Technicals are short-term stretched (RSI elevated) and price is approaching the next resistance zone (~66.74), increasing the odds of a near-term pause/pullback if earnings doesn’t impress. Options flow is cautious on the day (put volume > call volume), suggesting hedging ahead of earnings. Recent profitability metrics were weak in the latest reported quarter (net income/EPS/margins down sharply YoY), which can re-emerge as a concern if management commentary doesn’t confirm a clear profit recovery path. Broader market/event risk (macro data, government shutdown headlines) can weigh on risk appetite around the earnings window.
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q4. Revenue rose to $13.86B (+2.17% YoY), but profitability weakened significantly: net income fell to $47M (-86.83% YoY), EPS to $0.13 (-87.13% YoY), and gross margin to 5.27% (-33.88% YoY). The key takeaway is modest top-line growth but major margin/earnings compression—so the bull case relies on forward margin normalization (especially beef/chicken dynamics) rather than recent trailing profitability.
Recent trend: Price targets have been revised upward into late 2025/early 2026 (BofA to $65, Piper to $61, Bernstein to $60, and BMO upgrade to Outperform with $67). Ratings are mixed but improving at the margin: several Neutrals/Market Performs remain, yet the higher targets signal better near-term confidence. Wall Street pros: improving industry setup (notably beef margin improvement via capacity rationalization), solid chicken/pork fundamentals, and the stock’s risk/reward viewed favorably by the bullish camp. Wall Street cons: lingering skepticism on sustained earnings power (one BMO note flagged potential EPS declines through at least FY27 amid normalization/pressure), and headwinds in Prepared Foods/Pork profitability that could cap upside if they persist.
