TSM Should I Buy
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Buy now. TSM is in a larger uptrend (bullish moving-average stack), and today’s sharp pullback (-2.65% regular session; further mild weakness after hours) has brought price close to a clearly defined support zone (S1 ~327). With strong AI/data-center demand signals in recent coverage and a continued wave of analyst target raises after solid results, the current dip offers a favorable, actionable entry for an impatient buyer looking for upside over the next weeks to month.
Trend is still bullish on the higher level: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 indicates the primary trend remains up. However, momentum has turned negative short-term: MACD histogram at -0.656 is below zero and negatively expanding, signaling a pullback is in progress rather than a clean bounce yet. RSI(6) 45 is neutral, consistent with consolidation/pullback rather than oversold. Key levels: price (330) is below the pivot (336.56), so near-term bias is ‘sell rallies’ until reclaiming pivot; first support is S1 ~327.32 (near current price) then S2 ~321.62 if the dip extends. Upside resistance levels to watch are 345.79 (R1) then 351.49 (R2). Pattern-based expectation supplied: modest positive drift probabilities (next month +2.98%) align with a dip-within-uptrend setup.
AI/data-center demand narrative strengthening: news highlights TSM’s results implying massive global data-center spending through 2026, supportive for leading-edge nodes and advanced packaging demand.
Potential acceleration in AI ecosystem capex: OpenAI/Anthropic IPO acceleration talk can reinforce broader AI infrastructure spending (benefiting the semiconductor supply chain where TSM is central).
Analyst-driven catalyst tailwind: multiple firms raised targets and reiterated positive views after strong results and upbeat growth outlook commentary.
Short-term technical momentum is bearish (MACD negative and expanding), so price can still probe lower supports (~327 then ~
before stabilizing.
Options market is skewed defensive (elevated put interest/volume), which often coincides with near-term caution.
Apple roadmap restructuring/delays (standard iPhone timing shifted) introduces some end-demand uncertainty for certain consumer-linked volumes, even if high-end focus can be supportive for advanced silicon.
Latest provided quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth was strong and accelerating: revenue $33.08B (+40.49% YoY), net income $15.11B (+49.93% YoY), EPS $0.58 (+48.72% YoY). Gross margin improved to 59.45 (+2.80% YoY). Overall, the quarter shows robust top-line growth with even faster earnings growth and expanding profitability—consistent with a high-quality uptrend supported by fundamentals.
Recent analyst trend is decisively improving: multiple target raises in January 2026. Barclays lifted PT to $450 (Overweight) citing Q4 strength; Goldman raised its PT (Buy) and called out a multi-year AI growth engine; Citi raised PT substantially and flagged a near-term catalyst watch while keeping Buy; TD Cowen raised PT but remains Hold while acknowledging better-than-expected execution and +30% 2026 growth outlook. Wall Street pros: sustained AI-driven demand, advanced node/packaging strength, and strong execution/margins. Cons: valuation sensitivity and cyclical/near-term demand timing concerns reflected by at least one Hold and the market’s cautious near-term positioning.
