TSEM Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now. TSEM is in a bullish uptrend, but it’s trading near overhead resistance (R1 ~138) with momentum starting to cool (MACD positive but contracting), hedge funds have been meaningfully net sellers, and the pattern-based forward probabilities skew negative over the next week/month. For an impatient buyer, the risk/reward at ~134 is not attractive enough to initiate right here; better odds come on a pullback toward ~132 or lower (and especially 126) rather than chasing into resistance.
Trend: Bullish structure remains intact with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 (trend-following positive). Momentum: MACD histogram +0.444 (above zero) but positively contracting, signaling the up-move is still on but losing acceleration. RSI: RSI_6 ~61.7 (neutral-to-slightly warm), not overbought, but not an obvious low-risk dip-buy either. Levels: Pivot ~132.1 is the key near-term line. Resistance: R1 ~138.4 then R2 ~142.3. Support: S1 ~125.8 then S2 ~121.9. Price action context: Post-market ~133.9 after a flat regular session; with price sitting closer to resistance than support, the near-term upside is more capped unless it cleanly breaks and holds above ~138. Pattern/quant tilt: Similar-candlestick study implies ~70% chance of only +0.36% next day, but -1.94% next week and -8.58% next month, which argues against buying immediately.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Event-driven/flow: Rockingstone Advisors disclosed buying 45,100 shares (~$5.3M), a supportive signal of institutional demand.
Business momentum: Company cited Q3 revenue $396M and guided Q4 revenue to a record ~$440M (near-term growth catalyst).
Theme exposure: Strength in analog/RF/power management and RF infrastructure connectivity plus SiPho acceleration commentary from the Street supports a multi-year demand narrative.
Upcoming catalyst: Earnings on 2026-02-11 (pre-market) with EPS est. ~0.59—could re-rate the stock if margins/guide beat.
Positioning/flows: Hedge funds are selling, with selling amount up ~131% over the last quarter (not supportive near-term).
Technical risk/reward: Price is nearer resistance (~
than support (~126), with MACD contracting—less favorable entry for an impatient buyer.
Forward-probability skew: Pattern-based outlook points to weakness over the next week/month (-1.94% / -8.58%).
Earnings risk: Record Q4 revenue expectations raise the bar; any margin pressure or softer guide could trigger a pullback.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth: Revenue $395.7M, +6.79% YoY (top-line growth remains positive). Profitability: Net income $53.6M (-1.83% YoY) and EPS $0.47 (-4.08% YoY) show modest earnings compression. Margins: Gross margin 23.52% (down ~6.37% YoY), which is the key watch item—revenue is growing, but profitability is not expanding alongside it. Overall: Solid demand/revenue trend, but margin/earnings softness tempers the “buy now” case at current levels.
Recent trend: Mixed but skewing upward on targets overall. Benchmark has been notably bullish and raised PT twice (to $120 in Nov 2025, then to $150 in Jan 2026) with a Buy; Susquehanna raised PT to $135 (Positive). Barclays is more neutral (Equal Weight, PT $97). Wedbush downgraded to Neutral (PT $125) on valuation despite still liking the SiPho fundamentals. Wall Street pros: (1) Strong positioning in RF infrastructure connectivity and improving SiPho demand; (2) multi-quarter execution and raised outlook commentary; (3) multiple firms raising estimates/targets. Wall Street cons: (1) Valuation concerns at current levels (explicitly cited by Wedbush); (2) profitability/margin trajectory needs to re-accelerate to justify further upside. Influential/politician trading: No recent congress trading data available; insiders are neutral with no significant recent trend.
