TSAT Should I Buy
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TSAT is not a good buy right now. The stock is in a fragile technical position after a sharp drawdown, while the dominant narrative is event-driven downside risk (insolvency/bondholder lawsuits and multiple legal investigations). With no Intellectia buy signals and deteriorating latest-quarter fundamentals, the near-term risk/reward is unfavorable for an impatient buyer.
Price/Trend: The stock is trading below the key pivot (Pivot 30.282) with post-market at ~28.67 after a -3.67% regular-session drop, which keeps momentum biased bearish. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.424) and still below zero (bearish). Although it is ‘negatively contracting’ (downtrend losing force), that is not the same as a reversal. RSI: RSI(6) at ~42 is neutral-to-weak (not oversold), suggesting there may still be room lower before a reflex bounce is statistically favored. Levels: Immediate support S1 ~25.931 (then S2 ~23.243). Near resistance is the pivot ~30.282, then R1 ~34.633. A reclaim of ~30.3 would be the first technical improvement; until then, rallies look like selling opportunities. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals:
Any resolution/settlement that reduces insolvency risk or clarifies the debt path could trigger a sharp relief rally.
Technical: The downtrend appears to be losing some momentum (MACD negative but contracting), which can support short-lived bounces.
Pattern-based forward stats provided suggest modest upside bias over 1 month (+3.13%), but this is likely overwhelmed by current event risk.
Multiple headlines about bondholder/creditor lawsuits alleging insolvency and fraudulent transfers, plus several law-firm investigations into potential securities law violations—this is strong, ongoing headline risk.
Debt/solvency narrative increases probability of dilution, restructuring, or other value-destructive outcomes.
Recent sharp selloff (notably ~21% drop referenced in news) indicates damaged confidence and potential for further forced selling on new developments.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue fell to 101.06M (-27% YoY). Net income was -35.27M (worsened -297% YoY). EPS -2.38 (worsened -293.5% YoY). Gross margin 58.19% (down -17.11% YoY). Overall, the quarter shows worsening profitability and shrinking revenue, aligning poorly with the current credit/legal stress narrative.
No analyst rating/price target change data was provided, so a recent trend cannot be confirmed. Given the insolvency and litigation-driven overhang, the implied Wall Street-style bear case is dominant (credit risk, potential restructuring/dilution, deteriorating fundamentals). The bull case would center on a legal/financing resolution and a sharp rebound from depressed levels, but there is no supporting rating/target momentum in the data here.
