TRS Should I Buy
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TRS is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. The setup is mixed: fundamentals and insider buying look strong, but the near-term technical/price-path odds lean negative, hedge funds are aggressively selling, and there are no Intellectia buy signals to override those risks. I would hold off on initiating a new position at ~34.77 and reassess on a clean break above ~35.57 (R2) or a controlled pullback toward ~33.30–33.70 support with stabilization.
Price/levels: Post-market ~34.77, sitting just above the pivot (34.432). Immediate resistance is R1 ~35.137 then R2 ~35.572; supports are S1 ~33.727 then S2 ~33.292. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0486) but contracting, implying downside momentum is fading rather than accelerating. RSI: RSI(6) at ~57.36 is neutral-to-slightly bullish (not overbought), so there’s no strong momentum confirmation either way. Trend/structure: Converging moving averages suggests consolidation and a potential inflection point, but not a confirmed uptrend. Near-term statistical trend read: Pattern-based projection shows a 40% chance of -2.81% next day and -6.47% next week (bearish near-term skew), despite a +3.27% next-month expectation. Net: technically ‘not broken,’ but not a high-conviction entry right now unless it clears resistance with strength.
Insider buying surged (+2679.86% over the last month), a strong internal confidence signal.
Fundamental momentum: 2025/Q3 showed sharp YoY improvement across revenue, profit, EPS, and gross margin.
Analyst stance remains constructive: KeyBanc maintained Overweight and set a RemainCo value framework around ~$38 after the Aerospace divestiture.
Potential corporate-action clarity: divestiture proceeds can strengthen the balance sheet and sharpen focus, which can re-rate the remaining businesses if execution is solid.
Hedge funds are selling aggressively (selling amount up ~909.26% over the last quarter), a meaningful institutional headwind.
Near-term downside skew from the pattern-based forecast (notably negative 1-week expectation).
No supportive news flow in the past week to act as an immediate catalyst.
Portfolio change uncertainty: Aerospace divestiture changes the earnings mix; some investors may wait for clearer guidance on RemainCo capital allocation and growth profile.
Options IV is elevated vs realized volatility, implying the market expects turbulence—unfriendly for an impatient, ‘buy now’ entry without a clear breakout.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth/quality: Revenue rose to $269.26M (+17.40% YoY). Profitability inflected sharply with net income $9.3M (+267.59% YoY) and EPS $0.23 (+283.33% YoY). Margins: Gross margin improved to 24.48 (+7.56% YoY), indicating better operating quality (pricing/mix/efficiency). Takeaway: Fundamentals are improving meaningfully, which supports the longer-term bull case; the question is timing/entry given mixed technicals and institutional selling.
Recent change: On 2025-11-13, KeyBanc lowered its price target to $38 from $45 while maintaining an Overweight rating after TRS announced the divestiture of its Aerospace business for $1.45B. Interpretation: Wall Street view is ‘still positive, but reset expectations.’ Pros see the recent selloff as potentially overdone and value the RemainCo around ~$38/share; cons are the reduced PT (less upside vs prior view) and uncertainty around the post-divestiture business mix. Influential/political trades: No recent congress trading data available, and no politician/influential-figure transactions were provided in the dataset. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: No signal on given stock today. (- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.) (- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.)
