Should I Buy TROX? TROX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Tronox Holdings PLC (TROX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

7.460

1 Day change

7.96%

52 Week Range

10.080

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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Buy now. TROX is sitting near key support (~$5.60) after a sharp -8.87% regular-session drop, while positioning/sentiment (bullish put-call ratios, heavy insider buying, multiple price-target raises) suggests a rebound setup is favored over further immediate downside. With earnings (Feb 18) approaching and cost actions (Fuzhou closure) supporting the narrative, the risk/reward for an impatient buyer is attractive at ~$6.1 as long as it holds the $5.60 support zone.

Technical Analysis

Trend/levels: Short-term damage occurred today (-8.87%), but the broader MA stack remains bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), implying the primary trend has not fully broken. RSI(6)=45.65 is neutral (not overbought), consistent with a stock that can still bounce after a selloff. MACD histogram is slightly positive (0.0103) but contracting, signaling upside momentum is weakening and the stock is in a consolidation/basing phase rather than a strong uptrend. Key levels: Pivot=6.197 (price ~6.1 is just below pivot, so reclaiming ~6.20 is the first near-term bullish trigger). Support S1=5.599 (critical buy-defense level); S2=5.23 (next downside level). Resistance R1=6.795 then R2=7.164. Pattern-based odds: Similar-candlestick analog suggests +2.1% next day and +6.36% next week (but flat-to-slightly negative over the next month), aligning with a tactical bounce/swing-long rather than a long-duration trend bet.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment/positioning: Both open-interest and volume put-call ratios are low (0.59 OI; 0.14 volume), indicating call-skewed positioning and a bullish bias. Volatility: IV30 110.69 vs historical vol ~76.26 with IV percentile 91.6 (very elevated). This suggests the market is pricing large moves (often around event risk like earnings), and directional sentiment is currently more bullish than bearish. Activity: Today’s options volume (1194) is well above its 30-day average (69.66x), pointing to unusually strong attention/flow—consistent with a tradable catalyst window into earnings.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Analysts broadly reiterate Buy and raised price targets recently (Truist to $8, Deutsche Bank to $8, Goldman to $7.50), providing near-term Wall Street support.
- Fuzhou TiO2 plant shutdown is expected to generate $15M+ annual run-rate savings (per analyst commentary), improving cost structure.
- Insider buying surged (reported +1304.69% over the last month), a bullish signal that management/insiders see value at current levels.
- Event catalyst: Q4 earnings release scheduled Feb 18 (after hours) with webcast Feb 19—often a volatility window that can drive a sharp rebound if results/guide clear a lowered bar.
- Q4 revenue pre-announcement indicated ~$730M revenue (above analyst estimates), supporting the top-line narrative despite profitability pressure.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

and a break below S1 (~5.
would likely invite a quick move toward ~5.
- Extremely elevated implied volatility implies the market expects large swings; earnings could easily drive a sharp move against a long position if the print/guide disappoints.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.

Revenue: $699M, down -13.06% YoY (demand/price pressure persists).
Profitability: Net income improved to -$99M (less negative vs prior year; +296% YoY improvement as reported) and EPS improved to -$0.62 (+287.5% YoY improvement), but the company is still loss-making.
Margin: Gross margin fell to 7.58%, down -52.39% YoY, showing the key issue is margin compression even when parts of the P&L improve. Bottom line: The trend is a pressured top line and sharply weaker gross margin, offset by some improvement in net loss/EPS versus the prior year period—consistent with a cyclical trough/turnaround profile rather than steady growth.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Net-positive. Multiple firms raised price targets in late Jan 2026 (Truist $8, Deutsche Bank $8, Goldman $7.50) and maintained Buy ratings, implying the Street believes downside is increasingly priced in and cost actions can help results. Wall Street pros: (1) Cost savings from capacity actions like the Fuzhou shutdown; (2) potential competitive benefit vs some Chinese producers given input-cost dynamics; (3) several targets now sit meaningfully above the ~$6 stock price. Wall Street cons: (1) Weak demand and earnings power still challenged; (2) at least one notable bear (Mizuho Underperform, $3.50 PT) highlights ongoing China-driven TiO2 pressure and views parts of the story as high risk. Influential trading check: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds reported as neutral.

8 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast TROX stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TROX is 4.97 USD with a low forecast of 3.5 USD and a high forecast of 6 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

3 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 6.910

Low

3.5

Averages

4.97

High

Current: 6.910

Low

3.5

Averages

4.97

High

Truist

Buy

maintain

$7 -> $8

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

Reason

Truist

Price Target

$7 -> $8

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

maintain

Buy

Reason

Truist raised the firm's price target on Tronox to $8 from $7 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is adjusting its model after the company's earnings pre-announcement, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Some of the cost and mix-related weakness seen in the Q4 prelim results will impact Q1, the firm added.

Goldman Sachs

Duffy Fischer

Buy

maintain

2026-01-29

Reason

Goldman Sachs

Duffy Fischer

Price Target

2026-01-29

maintain

Buy

Reason

Goldman Sachs analyst Duffy Fischer raised the firm's price target on Tronox to $7.50 from $5.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Tronox's preliminary Q4 EBITDA of $57M missed consensus but was closer to reduced Street expectations, alongside a permanent shutdown of the Fuzhou plant that will drive $15M+ in annual run-rate savings despite near-term charges, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The closure underscores pressure from sharply higher sulfur prices, which are weighing more heavily on Chinese TiO2 producers than recent trade actions and benefiting Western producers that rely more on chlorine-based processes, the firm says.

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TROX Should I Buy

TROX Should I Buy

Should You Buy Tronox Holdings PLC (TROX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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