TRNR Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now. TRNR is in a structurally bearish trend (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5) and is being driven by a negative, unresolved event (Sportstech dispute) that can keep pressure on the stock. With no proprietary Intellectia buy signals today, weak profitability/margins, and headline risk into upcoming earnings (QDEC 2025 on 2026-02-13), the risk/reward is unfavorable for an impatient buyer looking for immediate follow-through.
Price/Trend: Despite a strong regular-session pop (+15.14%), the broader setup remains bearish with moving averages stacked down (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5), signaling a downtrend/rally-in-downtrend risk. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive and expanding (0.00305), suggesting a short-term bounce attempt; RSI(6) ~28 is near oversold, which can support a reflex rally, but it’s not enough to override the bearish trend structure. Key levels: Post-market ~0.4908 is sitting just above S1 ~0.448 (near-term line in the sand). A breakdown below ~0.448 increases downside risk; upside hurdles are the pivot ~0.901 and R1 ~1.353. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Short-term technical bounce setup: RSI near oversold plus improving MACD can spark quick rebounds.
Wattbike noted as performing strongly (per analyst commentary), supporting the acquisition/integration narrative.
Revenue growth in 2025/Q3 was very strong (+139% YoY).
Upcoming earnings (QDEC 2025 on 2026-02-13 pre-market) could act as a catalyst if results surprise positively or clarity improves.
Event-driven overhang: Sportstech publicly rejected TRNR’s claims and initiated legal steps in Germany; this prolongs uncertainty and can cap rallies.
Trend remains bearish (downtrend by moving averages), so upside spikes can fade quickly.
Profitability deterioration: 2025/Q3 net loss worsened (Net Income -$5.231M) and EPS collapsed (-3.11), while gross margin fell sharply (17.13%), implying weak unit economics.
Micro-cap profile (market cap cited around $2.42M) can amplify volatility and downside on negative headlines.
No notable supportive flows: hedge fund and insider trends are neutral; no recent congress trading data to suggest influential buying.
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to ~$4.815M (+139.08% YoY), but profitability weakened: Net Income declined to -$5.231M (more negative, -26.75% YoY), EPS fell to -3.11 (-99.80% YoY), and gross margin dropped to 17.13 (large YoY deterioration). This is growth without improving economics, which is a negative setup into the next earnings season (QDEC 2025 on 2026-02-13).
Recent Street view: Maxim maintains a Buy rating but sharply cut its price target to $2.25 from $9 (2026-01-23). Pros: still sees value in TRNR’s acquisition strategy and highlights Wattbike strength. Cons: major disappointment and uncertainty around the Sportstech transaction/dispute, implying reduced confidence and higher execution/legal risk. Overall, Wall Street stance is cautiously positive on paper (Buy) but with materially lowered expectations.
