TRIP Should I Buy
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TRIP is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The stock is in a bearish technical structure (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5, MACD below zero) and is heading into an earnings event (Feb 12) with a negative EPS estimate, while Street sentiment and targets have mostly been cut. There are positives (hedge fund buying, cost cuts/repositioning to Experiences, some constructive option open-interest skew), but without Intellectia buy signals and with price still below near-term resistance, the risk/reward is not attractive for an immediate entry.
Trend is bearish. Moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), implying the broader downtrend is still intact. MACD histogram is negative (-0.0386) and only modestly contracting, suggesting downside momentum is easing but not reversed. RSI_6 at ~43 is neutral-to-weak, not an oversold bounce setup. Key levels: pivot 13.37 (price 13.29 slightly below), support S1 12.89 then S2 12.60; resistance R1 13.85 then R2 14.14. A tactical bullish shift would require reclaiming and holding above ~13.85; until then, rallies are more likely to be sold. Pattern-based stats provided imply upside skew over a month (80% chance of +16.49% next month), but the current tape still looks like a downtrend base-building phase.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
with bearish MA stack, increasing odds of failed rallies.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to $553M (+3.95% YoY), while profitability improved meaningfully: net income $53M (+35.90% YoY) and EPS $0.43 (+59.26% YoY). Gross margin remained very high at 88.34% (+1.28% YoY). This is a positive profitability trend, but the market is focused on whether revenue growth can re-accelerate through the Experiences pivot and whether traffic weakness persists.
Recent Street trend is broadly negative-to-cautious with multiple price target reductions: Cantor Fitzgerald cut PT to $14 (kept Underweight), Jefferies cut PT to $12.50 (kept Underperform), Barclays cut PT to $13 (kept Underweight), B. Riley cut PT to $18 (kept Neutral), and BofA cut PT to $17 (kept Neutral). The notable positive change was Mizuho upgrading to Neutral with a higher PT of $17, citing cost reductions and the experiences pivot making risk/reward more balanced.
Wall Street pros: cost-cut plan and restructuring could drive margin improvement; Experiences strategy could re-accelerate growth longer-term; some see potential multiple re-rating in 2026/2027. Wall Street cons: ongoing traffic weakness and secular pressure in the legacy hotel business; execution risk transitioning to experiences as a public company; competitive intensity in experiences.
Influential/political trading check: No recent congress trading data available; insider trend is neutral (no significant recent insider activity reported).
