TREE Should I Buy
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TREE is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The stock is in a short-term down-move (bearish MACD expansion, price slipping toward/through support) with heavy put volume signaling near-term caution, and a sharp spike in insider selling. While revenue growth and a bullish analyst target are positives, the current setup does not favor immediate upside without a clear reversal signal.
Price/Trend: TREE fell -3.16% in the regular session and is ~56.63 post-market, now below/near the S1 support (57.432) and drifting toward S2 (54.379). This is a weak near-term tape. Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.96 and negatively expanding, indicating bearish momentum is strengthening. RSI: RSI(6) ~30.28 is near oversold, which can support a bounce, but it is not a confirmed reversal by itself. Moving Averages: Converging moving averages suggest a potential basing process, but currently without a bullish trigger. Key levels: Immediate resistance is the pivot at 62.373 (then R1 67.314). If price fails to reclaim 57.432 quickly, the next downside magnet is 54.379. Quant-like pattern read: Similar-pattern expectation is slightly negative over the next week (-0.65%), with better odds over the next month (+3.33%), implying timing risk for immediate buyers.
after stronger Q3 results/outlook, citing scale and diversification and a recovery narrative (Insurance; longer-term Home/Consumer with rate normalization).
can allow for a technical bounce if selling pressure fades near 54–57 support zone.
Technical momentum is bearish: MACD is negative and worsening, and price is breaking/pressuring key support (S1 57.432).
Options flow is defensive: put volume overwhelms call volume (Put/Call volume 11.67).
Insiders are selling aggressively: insider selling increased 1220.79% over the last month—often a near-term confidence/headwind signal.
No supportive news flow in the last week to act as a catalyst for an immediate reversal.
Short-term pattern probabilities skew slightly negative over the next week.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue: 307.792M, up +18.02% YoY (clear top-line growth). Profitability: Net income fell to 10.165M (down -117.53% YoY) and EPS fell to 0.73 (down -116.82% YoY), indicating earnings deterioration vs last year despite revenue growth. Margins: Gross margin improved to 94.7% (+0.65% YoY), but the earnings decline suggests higher operating costs, one-offs, or other below-gross-line pressure. Overall: Growth is present on revenue, but earnings trend is currently negative—this weakens the “buy it now” case.
Recent Street action: Truist (2025-11-03) raised price target to $72 from $62 and maintained a Buy rating, citing stronger-than-expected Q3 results and constructive outlook (Insurance recovery; longer-term Home/Consumer recovery as rates normalize). Wall Street pros view (pros): Recovery/normalization thesis, diversified revenue base, and improved outlook per Truist. Wall Street cons view (cons): Current market action and trading sentiment are not confirming the bullish thesis yet; earnings metrics in the latest quarter show significant YoY decline, raising execution/quality-of-earnings concerns. Influential trading check: No recent Congress trading data available; hedge funds are neutral; insiders are notably selling.
