TPG Inc. (TPG) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
Overview
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance with 11% appreciation in private equity and credit platforms, alongside 17% and 20% growth in revenue and EBITDA. The Q&A section showed positive sentiment towards credit and real estate growth, despite some unclear guidance. The firm's strategic plans, including expansion in private wealth and new product launches, are promising. Considering the market cap of $4.22 billion, these factors are likely to lead to a positive stock price movement in the short term.
Key Financial Performance
GAAP net income attributable to TPG Inc. $77 million for the fourth quarter of 2025.
After-tax distributable earnings $304 million for the fourth quarter of 2025, representing a 17% year-over-year increase.
Dividend per share of Class A common stock $0.61, declared for the fourth quarter of 2025.
Capital raised in 2025 $51 billion, a 71% increase over the prior year, driven by strategic partnerships and diversified capital sources.
Capital deployed in 2025 $52 billion, the highest annual deployment in TPG's history, reflecting an 88% year-over-year increase in the fourth quarter.
Realizations in 2025 $23 billion, reflecting consistent monetization efforts.
Fee-related revenue (FRE) for 2025 $2.1 billion, including $628 million in the fourth quarter, a 36% year-over-year increase.
Management fees for the fourth quarter of 2025 $475 million, an 18% year-over-year increase.
Transaction and monitoring fees for 2025 $249 million, a 70% year-over-year increase.
Fee-related earnings (FRE) for 2025 $953 million, a 25% year-over-year increase.
Fee-related earnings margin for 2025 45%, a 340 basis point expansion from 2024.
Total AUM at the end of 2025 $303 billion, a 23% year-over-year increase.
Fee-earning AUM at the end of 2025 $170 billion, a 20% year-over-year increase.
Dry powder at the end of 2025 $72 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase.
Private equity fundraising in 2025 $28 billion, an 80% year-over-year increase.
Credit capital raised in 2025 $21 billion, a 67% year-over-year increase.
Credit platform investment in 2025 $25 billion, a 54% year-over-year increase.
Private equity capital deployed in 2025 $21 billion, double the prior year.
Real estate capital deployed in 2025 $6 billion, with a 9% appreciation in the real estate platform.
Private equity strategies appreciation in 2025 11%, with revenue and EBITDA growth of approximately 17% and 20%, respectively.
Credit platform appreciation in 2025 11%, with strong credit quality and low nonaccruals.
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Operating Highlights
T-POP and TCAP: Expanded retail product suite anchored by T-POP and TCAP. T-POP has delivered a 23% return since inception and generated $1.5 billion in inflows. TCAP ended the year with $4.5 billion in AUM.
New Products in 2025: Launched Tika (Asia growth equity strategy), hybrid solutions, sports fund, and Advantage Direct Lending (ADL). ADL raised $875 million in equity, translating to $2 billion in buying power.
Capital Formation: Raised a record $51 billion in 2025, a 71% increase from 2024. Formed 5 cross-platform and multi-fund strategic partnerships worth over $10 billion.
Insurance Solutions: Capital raised in the insurance channel grew over 50%. Announced a long-term strategic partnership with Jackson Financial, structured to provide predictable fee revenue.
Private Wealth Strategy: Fundraising grew 66% year-over-year. Expanded distribution networks globally, partnered with over 40 platforms, and focused on international expansion.
Capital Deployment: Deployed $52 billion in 2025, the highest in TPG's history. Investment pace accelerated, with $19 billion deployed in Q4 alone.
Real Estate Platform: Deployed $6 billion in 2025, with a 9% appreciation in the portfolio. Acquired a majority interest in Quarterra to address the need for high-quality rental housing.
Credit Platform: Raised $21 billion in 2025, a 67% increase from 2024. Launched TPG Advantage Direct Lending and invested a record $25 billion.
AI and Software Investments: Focused on software companies where AI enhances customer experience or creates revenue opportunities. Built a resilient software portfolio with 18% of private equity AUM in software.
Acquisition of Peppertree: Acquired Peppertree to expand digital infrastructure investment capabilities in the wireless communication sector.
Global South Initiative: TPG Rise Climate invested $1 billion in Tata Consultancy Services' AI data center business to meet India's growing demand for data centers.
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Risk or Challenges
AI Disruption in Software Sector: The CEO highlighted that some software companies may be disrupted by the AI evolution, posing a risk to their business models and operations. This underscores the need for careful selection and investment in software companies.
Market Dislocation: The CEO mentioned that market dislocation creates opportunities but also implies risks, particularly in terms of valuation resets and potential financial instability.
Regulatory and Compliance Risks: The discussion included forward-looking statements and the need to comply with SEC filings and regulations, indicating potential risks related to regulatory compliance.
Economic Uncertainty: The CFO discussed the impact of economic conditions on fundraising and investment performance, which could pose challenges to achieving financial targets.
Credit Quality and Nonaccruals: The CFO noted that nonaccruals in middle market direct lending remain low but are a potential area of risk if economic conditions worsen.
Real Estate Market Volatility: The CFO highlighted strong performance in real estate but acknowledged the potential for market volatility, which could impact future returns.
Strategic Execution Risks: The CEO emphasized the importance of disciplined investment and strategic execution, suggesting that failure in these areas could adversely affect the company's performance.
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Guidance & Outlook
Fundraising Projections: The company expects 2026 to be another robust year of capital formation, with aggregate capital raising expected to exceed $50 billion. This includes major fundraising cycles in real estate, credit, private equity, insurance solutions, and private wealth.
Real Estate Fundraising: 2026 marks the beginning of a major fundraising cycle for TPG Real Estate, including TREP V, Asia fund, Japan Value Fund, and TPG AG U.S. real estate fund.
Credit Platform Growth: The company plans to scale its credit capital base across existing strategies and expand into adjacent areas, including investment-grade asset-backed finance (ABF), CLO platforms, and newer strategies like Advantaged Direct Lending and hybrid solutions.
Private Equity Fundraising: Drivers include completion of flagship fundraises for capital and climate private equity funds, additional closes for GP Solutions, tech adjacencies, Asia growth equity fund, sports fund, and transition infrastructure fund, as well as initial closes for Rise and Peppertree funds.
Insurance Solutions Growth: The strategic partnership with Jackson Financial is expected to close soon, with a minimum requirement of $4 billion of FAUM after 2 years and $12 billion by the end of year 5.
Private Wealth Expansion: The company expects inflows to increase in 2026 as it broadens its distribution networks globally, including onboarding significant distribution partners for T-POP and expanding its international footprint. Plans include launching a multi-strategy credit interval fund and a nontraded REIT.
Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) Margin: The company expects a full-year FRE margin of approximately 47% in 2026, up from 45% in 2025.
Realized Performance Revenue (PRE): Based on the current pipeline of signed monetizations, the company expects to generate realized performance revenue of more than $50 million for public shareholders in the first quarter of 2026.
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Shareholder Return Plan
Dividend Declaration: TPG declared a dividend of $0.61 per share of Class A common stock, to be paid on March 5, 2026, to holders of record as of February 19, 2026.
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Key Q&A
Q:What actions can be taken by the company and the industry to solidify belief and confidence on the direct lending side?
A:The CEO explained that their focus is on the lower middle market, which is fundamentally different from the upper middle market. They are generally the only lender, have higher coverage ratios, and apply at least two financial covenants to loans. They also control the revolver, providing a clear view of borrower performance. The company has a rigorous valuation process and is closely in touch with its borrower base. The CEO emphasized that confidence in the direct lending space will evolve over time as performance is observed.
Q:What drove the pickup in transaction fees in the quarter, and how should revenues be expected for 2026?
A:The CFO explained that the growth in transaction fees is driven by the broadening of the capital markets business across the firm. In Q4, transaction fees were recorded across 26 different transactions, spread across various platforms. While Q4 was above trend, the CFO views capital markets as a long-term growth opportunity, though revenues will remain lumpy.
Q:How has the baseline of capital markets capabilities changed over the last year, and what is the outlook for the next year?
A:The CFO stated that the capital markets team has more than doubled over the past 2-3 years, enabling better engagement with portfolio companies and deal teams. The baseline capabilities have grown, and the team is actively optimizing capital structures and exits. The CFO expects continued growth in capital markets opportunities, though revenues will remain volatile.
Q:What is the outlook for net deployment across various verticals within the credit business as a source of management fee growth?
A:The CEO highlighted the scalability of the credit business, the synergies between equity and credit franchises, and the growth in structured credit deployment. Deployment in structured credit has tripled from 2023 to 2025, reaching nearly $10 billion. The CEO expects continued growth in deployment and management fees, supported by scaling pools of capital and new opportunities.
Q:What qualities of the software buyout and growth books make the company feel comfortable about future returns, and what types of companies have been avoided?
A:The company focuses on vertical market software and cybersecurity, which benefit from proprietary data and AI adoption. Examples include Lyric, which processes medical claims, and Delinea, a cybersecurity provider. The company avoids horizontal applications and infrastructure software prone to AI disruption. The vast majority of the software portfolio is positioned to benefit from AI.
Q:What is the vintage mix of software investments, and how does the company view the broader software industry in terms of disruption timing?
A:The company exited most software companies in older funds (TPG VII and earlier) and has focused recent investments in funds 8, 9, and 10, with knowledge of AI developments. Disruption is already evident in results, as CIO budgets prioritize AI expenditures. The company uses leading indicators to identify winners and losers in the software market.
Q:What drove the fee rate decline quarter-over-quarter, and how should it be viewed going forward?
A:The CFO explained that the decline was due to a mix shift toward lower-fee credit businesses and a step-down in TPG IX fees in Q4. Fee rates are expected to remain influenced by business mix and fund lifecycle dynamics.
Q:What is the confidence level in real estate fundraising for 2026, given the broader market performance?
A:The CEO expressed confidence in real estate fundraising, citing strong performance and distinct franchise elements. Deployment opportunities have increased, and there is renewed LP interest in real estate. The CFO added that the TREP business is a key focus, with strong demand from institutional LPs and high-net-worth channels.
Q:What initiatives are planned for the wealth channel in 2026 to accelerate growth?
A:The company plans to expand T-POP and TCAP products, introduce a multi-strategy credit product and a non-traded REIT, and explore partnerships for bundled solutions. T-POP is expected to more than double in 2026, supported by new channel partners and expanded platform presence.
Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses
A:Management avoided providing specific numerical guidance for future revenues and fee rates, citing lumpiness and variability. They also used vague language when discussing the timing and scale of AI disruption in the software industry, as well as the exact impact of new initiatives in the wealth channel.
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Earnings Word Cloud
The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call
ADL
AI opportunity
Advantage Direct
Direct Lending
Lennar
POP
Rise Climate
TAC
TPG Rise
TPG credit
TPG set
Tata
Today software
ability opportunity
approach software
area TPG
capability transaction
capital TPG
capital deployment
capital structure
core market
credit capability
credit capital
demand opportunity
distribution
equity franchise
evergreen vehicle
housing
investment approach
investment capability
majority
record capital
record increase
result TPG
sector
software company
solution provider
strategy capital
strength franchise
threat
utility
yield
TPG Transcript
TPG Inc. (TPG) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive2-5
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance with 11% appreciation in private equity and credit platforms, alongside 17% and 20% growth in revenue and EBITDA. The Q&A section showed positive sentiment towards credit and real estate growth, despite some unclear guidance. The firm's strategic plans, including expansion in private wealth and new product launches, are promising. Considering the market cap of $4.22 billion, these factors are likely to lead to a positive stock price movement in the short term.
TPG Inc. (TPG) Presents at Goldman Sachs 2025 U.S. Financial Services Conference Transcript
Neutral12-9
TPG Inc. (TPG) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive11-4
The company reported strong financial metrics with significant fundraising and realizations, alongside positive portfolio appreciation. The Q&A section highlighted management's strategic focus on AI and credit growth, indicating optimism. However, some uncertainty remains due to the lack of specific forecasts for realizations and detailed guidance on FRE margins. Given the market cap of $4.2 billion, the stock is likely to react positively, but not excessively, resulting in a 'Positive' sentiment rating.
TPG Inc. (TPG) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive8-6
The earnings call shows strong financial performance with revenue and EBITDA growth, positive sentiment from strategic partnerships, and optimistic guidance on margin expansion and capital deployment. The Q&A highlights management's confidence in fund growth and strategic initiatives like TPOP and cross-platform partnerships. Despite some unclear responses on margin specifics, the overall sentiment is positive, with a focus on expanding capabilities and partnerships. The market cap suggests moderate stock price movement, but the positive factors outweigh potential concerns, predicting a 2% to 8% stock price increase.
TPG Slides
TPG Report
Frequently Asked Questions
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