TPC Should I Buy
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BUY now. Despite a small regular-session pullback (-1.21%), TPC remains in a strong uptrend (bullish moving-average stack) with supportive sentiment signals: hedge funds are aggressively increasing exposure (+196% QoQ buying), options positioning is notably call-skewed, and management just introduced shareholder-friendly catalysts (dividend initiation and a $200M buyback). With Wall Street raising targets to $86–$95 and the stock trading near $78.9, the risk/reward still favors entry now for an impatient buyer, even if the stock chops near resistance around ~$80.6.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Trend is bullish: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 confirms an established uptrend. Momentum is still positive but cooling—MACD histogram is above zero (0.365) yet positively contracting, suggesting upside momentum is slowing rather than reversing. RSI_6 at ~69 is near overbought territory but still labeled neutral here, implying the stock can continue higher while being prone to brief pullbacks.
Key levels: Pivot/support at ~76.88 is the first important hold area; below that, S1 ~73.15. Overhead resistance is close: R1 ~80.62, then R2 ~82.93. At ~78.89, the stock is below nearby resistance but not extended versus the trend, which keeps the setup favorable for a buy-now approach.
Shareholder returns catalyst: new $0.06 quarterly dividend (first payment Dec 23, 2025).
Capital allocation support: announced $200M share repurchase program (EPS-accretive if executed).
Operating cash flow strength: record YTD operating cash flow of $574.4M through Q3 2025, improving financial flexibility.
Institutional flow: hedge funds are buying, with reported buying amount up ~196% over the last quarter.
Analyst momentum: multiple price-target raises with Buy ratings following Q3.
Profitability deterioration in the latest quarter: net income and EPS down sharply YoY, and gross margin compressed materially—this can cap upside if the market refocuses from cash flow to earnings quality.
Near-term technical friction: price is approaching resistance (~80.6), while MACD momentum is contracting (risk of consolidation).
Options imply elevated movement: higher IV can reflect uncertainty around the path, even if directionally bullish.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew strongly to $1.415B (+30.71% YoY), signaling robust top-line/award execution. However, profitability weakened materially: net income fell to ~$3.63M (-103.60% YoY) and EPS to $0.07 (-103.65% YoY), alongside a significant gross margin drop (to ~11.97). Net: strong growth and cash generation optics, but margins/earnings quality are the key fundamental concern to monitor.
Recent analyst trend is positive (upward revisions):
Wall Street pros: strong cash flow narrative, shareholder-friendly dividend + buyback, and continued optimism reflected in higher targets. Wall Street cons: Q3 profitability/margin compression raises questions about earnings durability versus headline revenue growth.
Influential/political trading: no recent congress trading data available; insiders are neutral with no significant recent trend.
