Should I Buy TOST? TOST 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Toast Inc (TOST) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

27.730

1 Day change

2.51%

52 Week Range

49.660

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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TOST is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. The stock is in a clear short-term downtrend (bearish moving averages and worsening MACD), sitting just above near-term support (~~31.21) and below the key pivot (~~32.66). With no Intellectia buy signals today and insiders actively selling, the risk of further downside/sideways chop into earnings (2026-02-12) is higher than the immediate upside. A better “right now” buy setup would be a reclaim of ~32.66 (pivot) and stabilization, or a clean bounce off ~30.31 support with improving momentum—neither is present in the data.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum:

Moving Averages: Bearish alignment (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) confirms a downtrend across timeframes.
MACD: Histogram -0.356, below zero and negatively expanding → bearish momentum is increasing, not fading.
RSI(6): 22.30 indicates the stock is very stretched/oversold short-term, which can spark bounces, but oversold alone is not a buy signal when MACD/MA trend is still deteriorating.

Levels:

Immediate support: S1 ~31.211 (price ~31.11–31.12 is essentially sitting on it). If this breaks, next support is S2 ~30.314.
Resistance/pivot: Pivot ~32.663 is the key “trend line in the sand.” Above it, upside targets are R1 ~34.114 then R2 ~35.011.

Probability/Pattern read:

Similar-pattern projection implies modest negative drift over the next month (model shows ~-0.75% next month), consistent with the current bearish structure.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Interpretation:

Put/Call (Open Interest) 0.68 and Put/Call (Volume) 0.43 both show a call-leaning market (more bullish positioning than bearish).
Implied Volatility (30d) ~47.76 vs Historical Volatility ~54.66 → IV is not elevated versus realized; options are not pricing extreme near-term fear.
Activity: today’s volume ~9,312 vs 30D average participation only ~52.75% → sentiment is mildly bullish, but not backed by unusually strong flow today. Overall: options skew is supportive (bullish bias), but not strong enough to override the bearish price trend and insider selling.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-12 after hours (event-driven upside possible if guidance/units surprise positively).
- Analyst support remains present despite some trimming: recent Evercore upgrade to Outperform ($40 PT) and JPMorgan upgrade to Overweight ($43 PT).
- Fundamentals (latest reported quarter) show strong growth in revenue, profits, and margins.
- Positioning/flows: Hedge funds reported as net buyers with a sharp increase in buying activity last quarter.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Insiders are selling aggressively (selling amount up materially over the last month), which is a near-term sentiment headwind.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.

Revenue: $1.633B, +25.13% YoY (strong top-line growth).
Net Income: $105M, +87.50% YoY (profitability scaling faster than revenue).
EPS: $0.17, +88.89% YoY.
Gross Margin: 26.45%, +7.22% YoY (margin expansion trend is constructive). Takeaway: Business performance is improving meaningfully, but the stock’s current setup is being driven more by technical weakness/positioning and forward-expectations risk into the next earnings window.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend (ratings/targets): mixed but still net constructive.

Upgrades: Evercore upgraded to Outperform with a $40 PT (valuation reset + field checks supportive). JPMorgan previously upgraded to Overweight with a $43 PT.
Downgrade: Wolfe downgraded to Peer Perform citing fair valuation, competition, and TAM uncertainty.
Price targets: Several firms trimmed targets modestly (e.g., Truist and Stephens), suggesting tempered near-term expectations even among non-bears.

Wall Street pros:

Strong competitive position/operating leverage narrative; valuation seen as more reasonable after pullback; continued solid growth expected.

Wall Street cons:

Near-term comparisons/guidance risk (potential expectation reset), competition concerns, and view by some that valuation/estimates are now “fair,” limiting near-term upside without a catalyst.

Influential/political trading check:

Congress trading data (last 90 days): none provided.
No politician/influential figure transactions provided in the dataset.

TOST Should I Buy