TMO Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The stock is oversold and near support, but momentum is still deteriorating (bearish MACD expansion) and the post-earnings guidance hit can keep pressure on price. Without proprietary buy signals, the risk of a further leg down toward the next support outweighs the immediate upside.
Price/Trend: TMO sold off (regular session -2.29%) and is trading around 578.6 post-market, which is below S1 (583.6) and closer to the next support zone S2 (566.7). Momentum: RSI(6) ~19.2 is deeply oversold (bounce risk), but MACD histogram (-5.671) is below zero and negatively expanding, implying downside momentum is still strengthening. Moving averages are converging, suggesting the stock is in a transition zone, but not yet showing a confirmed reversal. Key levels: Pivot ~611 is now a major overhead resistance; bulls likely need to reclaim that area to re-establish upside control.
Q4 2025 beat: Revenue ~$12.21B and adj. EPS $6.57 came in strong versus expectations. Street narrative: multiple firms cite a continuing recovery/normalization into 2026 (biopharma spend improving, tools setup). Analyst support: a wave of price target increases and reiterated Buy/Overweight/Outperform ratings can provide a sentiment backstop after the drop.
with bearish MACD expansion raises odds of a retest toward ~566.
Insider activity: insiders are selling, with selling amount up ~226% over the last month—often a sentiment headwind. Margin pressure: gross margin down ~10.33% YoY in the latest quarter suggests mix/cost pressures despite revenue/EPS growth.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Growth: Revenue $12.215B (+7.20% YoY), Net Income $1.964B (+7.32% YoY), EPS $5.21 (+9.00% YoY) show solid top-line and earnings expansion. Watch-out: Gross margin fell to ~37.95% (-10.33% YoY), indicating profitability headwinds even as sales rise—this aligns with why forward guidance sensitivity mattered to the market.
Recent trend: decisively improving. Multiple banks raised price targets recently (e.g., Barclays to $650, Citi to $685, Stifel to $700, TD Cowen to $696, BofA to $700, Wells Fargo to $675, KeyBanc upgrade with $750) with predominantly Buy/Overweight/Outperform stances. Wall Street pros: recovery/normalization into 2026, improved biopharma spending, and TMO’s execution and positioning across tools/manufacturing. Cons: timing uncertainty in drug discovery and some government/academic spending pockets, plus near-term guidance/margin concerns that can cap the stock until visibility improves.
