Should I Buy TMDX? TMDX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Transmedics Group Inc (TMDX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

135.060

1 Day change

4.21%

52 Week Range

156.000

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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Buy now. TMDX is pulling back into a key support area (~133) while the bigger-picture trend remains bullish (moving averages stacked up). Options positioning is net-bullish (low put/call ratios), analysts are broadly constructive with targets above the current price, and the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3) shows strong acceleration in revenue and profitability. With no proprietary sell signal and the stock already discounted on a competition headline that at least one key analyst calls “unwarranted,” risk/reward favors an immediate entry for an impatient buyer.

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: Near-term downside momentum is present, but the primary trend still leans bullish.

Moving averages: Bullish structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) suggests the intermediate/long trend remains up.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.473) and expanding lower, indicating the pullback has momentum.
RSI(6): 38.17, leaning toward the “getting oversold” zone, consistent with a selloff that may be nearer to exhaustion than expansion.
Key levels: Support S1 ~133.31 (price ~134). If buyers defend this area, a rebound attempt is plausible. Resistance/pivot overhead at ~139.89, then ~146.46.
Pattern-based odds (given): Model suggests positive drift over 1D/1W/1M (60% chance; ~+0.98% next day, +1.53% next week, +9.89% next month).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment/Positioning:

Put/Call ratios: Open interest P/C 0.48 and volume P/C 0.46 both indicate calls outweigh puts (bullish tilt).
Volatility: 30D IV 64.67 vs historical vol 48.1 implies options are pricing elevated near-term movement; however IV rank 15.27 and IV percentile 36.4 suggest it’s not extreme relative to the past year.
Activity: Today’s volume (670) is below recent averages (today vs 30D avg volume ~41%), but open interest looks elevated (today vs OI avg ~105%), suggesting positioning is building more than day-trading speculation.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Event-driven: The recent selloff tied to Bridge to Life’s VitaSmart FDA clearance is being framed by TD Cowen as not a true threat to OCS Liver, calling the drawdown “unwarranted,” which can support a bounce if the market agrees.
Upcoming catalyst: Earnings (QDEC
on 2026-02-25 after hours; pre-earnings setups can attract buyers if expectations are seen as achievable.
Fundamental momentum: Strong growth and margin improvement (2025/Q
supports the longer-term uptrend.
Industry backdrop: Multiple firms remain constructive on MedTech into 2026 (hospital spending environment/supportive setup).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Technical overhang: MACD is negatively expanding, so the stock is still in a short-term downswing.
Competition headline sensitivity: Even if VitaSmart is not a like-for-like competitor, the market can continue to re-rate on “new entrant” headlines.
Earnings risk: With earnings upcoming (2/25), any miss vs Street expectations (especially on service revenue) could pressure shares.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.

Revenue: $143.823M, +32.24% YoY (strong top-line growth).
Net income: $24.319M, +476.83% YoY (sharp profitability inflection).
EPS: $0.60, +400% YoY (earnings power accelerating).
Gross margin: 58.74%, +5.17% YoY (operating quality improving). Overall read: Growth is not only continuing; profitability and margins are scaling quickly, which supports buying dips rather than fading them.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Analysts are largely constructive with multiple Buy/Overweight ratings and generally raised/affirmed targets into late 2025 and early 2026.

TD Cowen (2026-01-21): Reiterated Buy, PT $170; downplayed competitor threat and called selloff unwarranted.
Piper Sandler (2026-01-02): Overweight, PT $140; sees volumes supportive, limited upside but expectations achievable.
Needham (2025-12-08): PT raised to $166 from $148; cited strong transplant volume signals.
Canaccord (2025-12-17): PT nudged to $148; bullish MedTech into 2026.
Morgan Stanley (2025-12-02): Equal Weight, PT $135; more neutral view. Wall Street pros/cons view: Pros—dominant platform positioning, improving transplant volumes, strong growth/margin trajectory. Cons—near-term expectation risk into earnings and periodic headline-driven volatility around competition.

11 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast TMDX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TMDX is 147.8 USD with a low forecast of 115 USD and a high forecast of 170 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

9 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 129.600

Low

115

Averages

147.8

High

170

Current: 129.600

Low

115

Averages

147.8

High

170

TD Cowen

Buy

maintain

$170

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

Reason

TD Cowen

Price Target

$170

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

maintain

Buy

Reason

TD Cowen says TransMedics shares are under pressure after Bridge to Life's VitaSmart received FDA clearance for liver transplantation. While VitaSmart is "technically competition" to TransMedics' OCS Liver, the system employs a back-to-base model using static cold storage, followed by hyperoxygenated perfusion in a bowl, the analyst tells investors in a research note. As a result, TD does not view VitaSmart as a threat to OCS Liver. Bridge to Life's system is "vastly different" from TransMedics' as it is not portable and does not allow surgeons to utilize biomarkers to assess organ function in the way that OCS Liver does, the firm contends. It continues to think TransMedics will maintain its dominance as new machine perfusion options come to market for liver. The firm views the selloff in shares today as unwarranted and reiterates a Buy rating on TransMedics with a $170 price target. The stock in afternoon trading is down 5% to $134.39.

Piper Sandler

Matt O'Brien

Overweight

maintain

$140

2026-01-02

Reason

Piper Sandler

Matt O'Brien

Price Target

$140

2026-01-02

maintain

Overweight

Reason

Piper Sandler analyst Matt O'Brien notes that every month, the firm tracks organ transplant volumes and the number of flights taken by TransMedics' medical jet fleet. Transplant volumes grew low single-digit in Q4 2025 versus Q3 2025. Liver, which the company is closely tied to, showed a strong 4.2% increase quarter-to-date. Piper keeps in mind that the Street is still expecting nearly 10% sequential growth in product sales in Q4 2025, which appears achievable to it based on machine perfusion share gains though room for upside seems limited. While the firm's model implies that service revenues may fall just short of expectations, it is within a reasonable margin of error for potential modest upside. Thus overall, Piper believes the Street's service revenue target is achievable, with modest downside risk and upside potential. The firm has an Overweight rating on the shares with a price target of $140.

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TMDX Should I Buy

TMDX Should I Buy

Should You Buy Transmedics Group Inc (TMDX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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