Should I Buy TMCI? TMCI 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Treace Medical Concepts Inc (TMCI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

2.260

1 Day change

10.78%

52 Week Range

10.460

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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TMCI is not a good buy right now. The stock is in a clear bearish trend (bearish moving-average stack, negative/expanding MACD), sitting on/just below near-term support (~2.326) with no Intellectia buy signal to override the technical weakness. Options flow is signaling near-term caution (very high put-heavy volume and extreme implied volatility), while Wall Street has been cutting targets and issuing downgrades after a guidance reset and concerns about share loss in the core franchise. If you’re impatient and want to buy immediately, the current setup does not favor a high-probability entry; the better stance based on the provided data is to stay on the sidelines (hold / no new buy).

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: Downtrend remains intact. Moving averages are bearishly aligned (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating sustained downside pressure. Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.0171 and negatively expanding suggests bearish momentum is increasing, not fading. RSI: RSI_6 at 24.343 indicates deeply oversold conditions (despite the label in the feed), which can allow for short bounces, but oversold alone is not a buy signal when trend/momentum remain bearish. Levels: Pivot 2.509 is overhead resistance; immediate resistance at R1 2.693. Support is S1 2.326 (price ~2.32 is essentially at/just under this level); next support S2 2.213. A reclaim of the pivot (2.509) would be the first meaningful technical improvement. Quant pattern read-through: Similar-pattern stats show ~80% chance of -0.82% next day, but positive drift over 1 week (+3.66%) and 1 month (+4.8%); given the current bearish structure, near-term downside risk remains elevated even if a bounce is possible.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Open interest: Put/Call OI ratio 0.1 (calls dominate OI: 796 call OI vs 83 put OI), which can look constructive on positioning. Volume/flow today: Put/Call volume ratio 22.73 (500 puts vs 22 calls) is strongly bearish/defensive for the session—often consistent with hedging or downside speculation. Volatility: 30D IV 280.62 with IV percentile 99.6 and IV rank 98.8 indicates extremely elevated option pricing (market expecting large moves). Today’s volume is massively above average (today vs 30D avg volume ~735%), highlighting unusually strong sentiment/positioning activity. Net take: Despite call-heavy open interest, the current flow is aggressively put-heavy and volatility is extreme—this is not the typical backdrop for a clean, low-friction long entry right now.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Potential oversold bounce setup near S1/S2 support due to very low RSI.
Next earnings event: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 after hours could act as a catalyst if results/guidance stabilize.
Company still showed revenue growth in 2025/Q3 (+11.37% YoY), suggesting demand hasn’t fully collapsed even amid challenges.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Technical trend is decisively bearish (bearish MA stack + worsening MACD).
Options tape is strongly bearish on volume (put volume overwhelms calls) and IV is extremely elevated, implying the market is braced for large downside/upside swings but with current skew cautious.
Analyst commentary highlights near-term headwinds: implied return to negative revenue growth in Q4, incremental share loss in core Lapiplasty, and a major guidance disappointment.
No supportive near-term news flow in the last week to shift sentiment.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue: $50.214M, +11.37% YoY (solid top-line growth). Profitability: Net income -$16.288M (still a loss, though improved ~6.04% YoY). EPS -0.26 (improved ~4% YoY). Margins: Gross margin 79.07%, down ~1.34% YoY—margin pressure is a negative trend. Bottom line: Growth exists, but the business remains loss-making and margin is slipping; analysts also flagged that underlying demand/shipments may have been flattered and that Q4 is expected to weaken, which dampens the quality of the Q3 growth.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Broadly negative. Multiple firms cut price targets and several downgraded following the Q3 update and lowered outlook. Key changes: JPMorgan downgraded to Underweight (PT cut to $5 from $8). BTIG downgraded to Neutral. Truist kept Hold but cut PT multiple times ($7 -> $4 -> $3). UBS maintained Neutral with a PT cut. Stifel kept Hold with PT cut. Lake Street maintained Buy but sharply cut PT ($12 -> $7.50). Wall Street pros: Some optimism that execution could improve and that new product factors may help longer-term; one remaining Buy (Lake Street) suggests upside if the story stabilizes. Wall Street cons: Clear near-term demand/share-loss concerns in the core franchise, guidance reset implying Q4 weakness, and uncertainty on timing of resolution—overall consensus tone is cautious to negative. Influential/Politician trading: No recent Congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders are reported as Neutral with no significant recent trends.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals:

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

TMCI Should I Buy