TMC Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now. Despite very bullish analyst updates and strongly call-skewed options positioning, the stock just suffered a sharp regular-session selloff (-11.85%) and is trading below a key support level (S1=6.857) with bearish, expanding MACD momentum. For an impatient buyer unwilling to wait for a cleaner entry, the current setup favors standing aside until price reclaims support or momentum stabilizes.
Trend/Momentum: Mixed-to-bearish in the near term. The moving averages are structurally bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but momentum is deteriorating: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0849) and negatively expanding, signaling downside momentum is strengthening. RSI(6)=34.0 is weak and near oversold territory, consistent with a selloff but not yet showing a clear reversal signal. Key levels: Price (~6.66 post-market) is below S1 (6.857), which is a technical breakdown of support; next support is S2 (6.043). Pivot resistance is far above at 8.175, implying substantial overhead resistance after the gap-down style move. Price action context: Regular market -11.85% followed by only +0.83% post-market bounce suggests the down-move has not been convincingly absorbed yet. Pattern-based near-term odds: Similar-pattern stats imply modest upside over 1 week/month (+2.17% / +2.84%) but negligible next-day drift (-0.17%), which is not compelling enough to override the current bearish momentum and broken support.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Regulatory/permitting progress: Recent analyst notes cite a major permitting milestone and NOAA exploration/commercial recovery permit application as de-risking steps.
Macro tailwind narrative: Critical minerals are increasingly treated as national security priorities, supporting strategic interest in new supply sources.
Street enthusiasm: Two price target raises (to $12.25 and $11.
with Buy ratings reinforce a bullish long-term narrative and can attract incremental capital.
Policy headline risk: The Trump administration policy shift requiring “financial independence” for future rare earth projects triggered a sector sell-off; even if TMC is not identical to rare earth miners, it trades in the broader critical-minerals sentiment complex.
Technical damage: A steep -11.85% regular-session drop and break below S1 support increases the odds of further downside/volatility before any durable bounce.
Business model risk still high: Deep-sea mining remains politically and environmentally controversial; permitting progress helps, but it doesn’t remove execution and regulatory uncertainty.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth/profitability: The company remains effectively pre-revenue (Revenue: 0). Losses are still very large (Net income: -$184.5M; EPS: -0.46). While the snapshot labels YoY changes as improvements, the core takeaway is that the business is not yet generating revenue and is still burning significant capital, so the stock trades primarily on permitting/regulatory milestones and sentiment rather than operating momentum.
Recent trend: Upward and bullish. In Jan 2026, Alliance Global raised its price target to $12.25 (from $6.50) and reiterated Buy; H.C. Wainwright raised its target to $11.75 (from $7.50) and reiterated Buy, citing permitting/licensing steps as de-risking. Earlier (Nov 2025) H.C. Wainwright also lifted the target slightly to $7.50 and kept Buy. Wall Street pros: Clear first-mover/optionality thesis in deep-sea mining + perceived regulatory tailwinds + milestone-driven de-risking. Wall Street cons: The thesis is still dependent on regulatory outcomes and future commercialization; fundamentals are not supporting valuation via revenue/earnings yet, so downside moves can be abrupt when policy headlines turn.
