Should I Buy TM? TM 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Toyota Motor Corp (TM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

244.220

1 Day change

2.96%

52 Week Range

246.360

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

TM is a BUY right now. The trend structure is bullish (short/medium/long moving averages stacked higher), price is holding above the key pivot (~225), and the latest quarter shows strong YoY growth in revenue and especially earnings. Options flow is somewhat defensive (put volume outweighs calls), but not extreme enough to negate the broader uptrend and improving profit picture. With earnings (QDEC 2025) coming on 2026-02-06 pre-market, the stock also has a clear near-term catalyst.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Bullish MA stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) indicates an established uptrend. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.669) but contracting, suggesting downside momentum is fading and the uptrend may be stabilizing rather than breaking. RSI: RSI_6 at ~56 is neutral-to-slightly-bullish (not overbought), leaving room for continuation. Key levels: Pivot ~225.037 is the main near-term line in the sand; price post-market ~227.945 is above it. Upside resistance levels are R1 ~230.614 then R2 ~234.06. Supports are S1 ~219.46 then S2 ~216.014. Pattern-based short-term odds: Similar-pattern model suggests modest upside bias (next day +0.96% probability/expectation) and stronger 1-month potential (+8%).

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Neutral

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Open interest: Put/Call OI ratio = 1.0 (balanced positioning; not strongly bullish or bearish). Volume/sentiment: Put/Call volume ratio = 1.78 (puts traded significantly more than calls), implying near-term hedging or cautious sentiment. Volatility: 30D IV ~~27.21 vs HV ~25.2 (IV slightly premium to realized). IV percentile ~57 suggests mid-range pricing of options, not extreme. Option volume is elevated vs 30D average (~~122.66%), reinforcing that sentiment read (more active/defensive trading).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-06 (pre-market).
- Product/brand momentum: Tacoma wins 'Truck of Texas' again and posted best sales year ever in 2025; continued leadership narrative in key U.S. segments.
- Marketing/brand visibility: Super Bowl LX RAV4/bZ showcase and broader sports partnerships support brand presence.
- Technical backdrop: Bullish moving-average structure with price above pivot support (~225).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Options tape is defensive: put volume outweighs call volume (Put/Call volume ratio 1.78), suggesting traders are hedging or expecting near-term choppiness.
- Profitability pressure: Gross margin fell to 15.91 (down ~25.34% YoY), a notable negative trend even as EPS rose.
- Near resistance overhead: First meaningful resistance zone is ~230.6; failure to clear could cap immediate upside.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2026/Q2.

Revenue: 83.95B, +9.38% YoY (steady top-line growth).
Net Income: 6.32B, +64.30% YoY (strong acceleration in profitability at the bottom line).
EPS: 0.49, +68.97% YoY (strong per-share earnings growth).
Gross Margin: 15.91, -25.34% YoY (margin compression is the main blemish; growth is being achieved with lower gross profitability).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

The provided analyst rating updates are not for Toyota Motor (TM) and appear unrelated (they reference other companies). Based on the data given here, there is no actionable recent Wall Street rating/price-target change trend to summarize for TM.

Wall Street-style pros (from the provided dataset): strong YoY revenue and EPS growth in the latest quarter; continued U.S. product strength (Tacoma sales/awards); technically constructive trend. Wall Street-style cons: material gross margin decline; options market showing more put demand than call demand; earnings event risk can dominate short-term price action.

Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available. Hedge funds/insiders: Neutral with no significant recent trend.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast TM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TM is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy

Hold

Sell

Current: 237.190

Low

Averages

High

Current: 237.190

Low

Averages

High

BofA

Buy

Neutral

downgrade

$68 -> $70

AI Analysis

2026-01-16

Reason

BofA

Price Target

$68 -> $70

AI Analysis

2026-01-16

downgrade

Buy

Neutral

Reason

BofA downgraded Taylor Morrison to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $70, up from $68. The firm is lowering its 2026 EPS estimates by 6%, noting that its 2026 EPS estimate is now about 18% below consensus. Taylor Morrison "screens attractively on valuation," but the firm sees the most downside risk compared to consensus EPS among builders on lower deliveries, the analyst tells investors.

Cormark

Stefan Ioannou

Market Perform

Buy

upgrade

$6.50

2025-12-18

Reason

Cormark

Stefan Ioannou

Price Target

$6.50

2025-12-18

upgrade

Market Perform

Buy

Reason

Cormark analyst Stefan Ioannou upgraded Trilogy Metals to Buy from Market Perform with a C$6.50 price target.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for TM

Unlock Now

TM Should I Buy

TM Should I Buy

Should You Buy Toyota Motor Corp (TM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch