Should I Buy TLYS? TLYS 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Tillys Inc (TLYS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

1.440

1 Day change

52 Week Range

4.400

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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TLYS is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The stock is in a clear short-term downtrend (bearish MACD expansion) and is breaking down toward/through support levels while negative news (fiduciary-duty investigation headline) adds event risk. Even though it is deeply oversold (RSI6 ~18.8) and could bounce, there is no proprietary buy signal (no AI Stock Picker, no SwingMax) to justify stepping in immediately. Best action: avoid/new buyers stay out (sell/skip for now).

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: Post-market ~$1.47 after a -3.29% regular-session drop and further weakness. Momentum is bearish. Indicators: MACD histogram -0.0291 and negatively expanding = downside momentum strengthening. RSI(6) 18.814 = deeply oversold, which can produce short bounces, but oversold alone is not a buy trigger when MACD is still deteriorating. Moving averages: Converging MAs suggests compression, but current momentum favors a downside resolution. Levels: Pivot 1.598 is overhead; near-term resistance 1.712/1.782. Support S1 1.484 is being tested/breached; next support S2 1.414. A decisive hold above ~1.48 and reclaim of 1.60 would be needed to improve the setup. Pattern odds provided: Similar-pattern stats imply weak forward returns (next week -2.54%, next month -7.81%), reinforcing the bearish bias.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment/Positioning: Open interest is extremely call-heavy (OI P/C 0.02; calls 2580 vs puts 64), but today’s volume skew is put-heavy (volume P/C 5.5) on very small absolute volume (13 contracts). That mix often reads as: existing positioning remains call-leaning, while near-term traders are buying puts (or selling calls) into weakness. Volatility: IV is extremely elevated (30D IV ~280.96, IV percentile 97.6) versus historical volatility ~71.37—options are priced for very large moves, consistent with high uncertainty/event risk rather than a clean bullish setup.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Deeply oversold RSI increases odds of a short-lived technical bounce.
Gross margin improved to 30.51% (+17.66% YoY), suggesting some improvement in merchandising/discounting discipline.
Very high implied volatility can amplify upside if a positive catalyst hits (though it cuts both ways).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

and testing/breaking support (1.484).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter (2026/Q3): Revenue $139.587M (-2.69% YoY) shows continued top-line contraction. Profitability remains weak: Net income -$1.407M (down -89.07% YoY) and EPS -$0.05 (down -88.37% YoY). The main positive is gross margin expansion to 30.51% (+17.66% YoY), but the company is still loss-making and revenue is shrinking—overall not supportive of an immediate buy.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating/price target change data was provided, so a clear Wall Street consensus trend can’t be confirmed here. Given the micro-cap retail setup (shrinking revenue, losses, elevated volatility), the typical ‘pro’ case would focus on turnaround/margin recovery and mean-reversion upside, while the ‘con’ case would emphasize ongoing demand weakness, execution risk, and headline/legal overhang—currently the cons dominate based on the available data.

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast TLYS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TLYS is 2.25 USD with a low forecast of 2.25 USD and a high forecast of 2.25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 1.440

Low

2.25

Averages

2.25

High

2.25

Current: 1.440

Low

2.25

Averages

2.25

High

2.25

Roth Capital

Neutral

maintain

AI Analysis

2025-09-04

Reason

Roth Capital

Price Target

AI Analysis

2025-09-04

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Roth Capital raised the firm's price target on Tilly's to $2.25 from $1.30 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company delivered a healthy Q2 that was much better than expected on profitability thanks to higher product margins and strong SG&A cost containment, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Tilly's also noted a 1% positive August comp that likely would have been even better without noise from a supplier making distribution changes, the firm added.

B. Riley

Neutral

downgrade

2025-06-05

Reason

B. Riley

Price Target

2025-06-05

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

B. Riley lowered the firm's price target on Tilly's to $2 from $2.50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Tilly's Q1 sales, gross margin, and EBITDA were all below consensus estimates, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Comparisons are relatively easy versus a multi-year negative stack, but structural elements and ongoing macro headwinds prolong the impact of potential traction with merchandising and planning and allocation turnaround initiatives, the firm says.

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TLYS Should I Buy

TLYS Should I Buy

Should You Buy Tillys Inc (TLYS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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