TLS Should I Buy
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Buy now. TLS is pulling back to a key support area (around S1 ~5.38) while maintaining a bullish moving-average structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200). With analysts having recently raised price targets following a strong Q3 and the fundamental growth narrative (TSA PreCheck/DMDC ramp) intact, the current dip looks like an attractive entry for an impatient buyer rather than waiting for a “perfect” setup.
Trend is still constructive despite today’s weakness. The moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting the broader trend remains up. RSI(6) at 42 is neutral-to-slightly weak, consistent with a pullback rather than an overbought condition. MACD histogram is above zero (0.0131) but contracting, implying upside momentum is fading short-term and price may chop before resuming. Key levels: price (5.45) is below the pivot (5.628), so near-term bias is cautious, but it’s close to support S1 (5.384). A clean hold above ~5.38 favors a bounce attempt toward pivot 5.63, then R1 5.87; a break below S1 increases risk of testing S2 ~5.23.
Event-driven catalyst from the most recent earnings cycle: Q3 beat and raised outlook commentary referenced by multiple analysts;
Continued TSA PreCheck ramp (now operating at scale across ~500 locations per analyst notes) and DMDC growth drivers;
Improving profitability profile indicated by higher gross margin and strong incremental EBITDA margin commentary (per analyst recaps).
Near-term price weakness: regular session -2.33% and pre-market indicated further softness, which can keep momentum traders sidelined;
Profitability still negative (net loss), so execution risk remains if growth slows;
Very high realized volatility (historical vol ~95.
means sharp swings can occur even without news;
No fresh news catalysts in the past week to immediately reverse today’s weakness.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to 51.44M (+116.31% YoY), showing strong top-line acceleration (consistent with TSA PreCheck/DMDC ramp). Gross margin improved to 39.94% (+12.07% YoY), a positive quality-of-growth signal. Net income remained negative at -2.114M and EPS was -0.03, indicating the company is still not GAAP-profitable yet, but the loss magnitude appears relatively contained versus the scale-up in revenue—overall a growth-improving-margin setup.
Recent trend is clearly improving: multiple firms raised price targets on 2025-11-11 after Q3 results and guidance updates. BMO lifted PT to $8 (Market Perform), DA Davidson to $7.50 (Neutral), while B. Riley reiterated Buy with PT $9 and Northland reiterated Outperform with PT $9. Wall Street pros: strong execution in 2025, TSA PreCheck scale and DMDC ramp driving revenue and margin leverage, guidance momentum. Cons: some firms still sit at Neutral/Market Perform, implying valuation/visibility or profitability concerns remain despite better execution. Politicians/congress/influential trading: no recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders show neutral recent activity.
