TLRY Should I Buy
-
$
0.000
0.000(0.000%)
At close0.000(0.000%)Aft-market
ET
Loading...
TLRY is NOT a good buy right now for an impatient trader. Despite being deeply oversold (RSI_6 ~17) and near/below key support (S1 7.692; current ~7.46), the broader trend remains decisively bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) with a weakening MACD (-0.153 and expanding negative). With no fresh news catalysts, neutral institutional/insider activity, and mostly Neutral/Hold Wall Street positioning, the setup looks like a high-risk “falling knife” rather than a strong, time-sensitive entry.
Trend is bearish across moving averages (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), confirming a downtrend. Momentum is still deteriorating: MACD histogram at -0.153 and negatively expanding. RSI_6 at ~17 signals extreme oversold conditions, which can produce sharp dead-cat bounces, but oversold alone is not a reversal signal while MACD is worsening. Price is trading below the pivot (8.546) and below S1 (7.692), putting the next notable downside reference near S2 (7.165). Upside levels to reclaim for any credible reversal are first S1/pivot (7.69–8.55), then R1 (9.40). Pattern-based projection implies only modest expected gains (about +0.66% next day; +1.45% next week), not a strong asymmetric setup.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
creates potential for a short-term bounce, especially near S2 (7.165). Options sentiment is call-heavy (put/call ratios 0.12 OI and 0.15 volume), implying traders are positioning for upside. Prior regulatory optimism (late-2025 executive order mention) remains a background tailwind if further U.S. legislative progress materializes.
Primary trend is still down (bearish MA stack) and momentum is worsening (negative, expanding MACD), which often overrides oversold readings. No recent news in the past week to serve as a near-term catalyst. Business uncertainty remains highly tied to U.S. legislative outcomes; prior analyst notes highlight regulatory headwinds and tough beer-market dynamics. Neutral hedge fund/insider trend data provides no supportive “smart money” signal.
Latest reported quarter (2026/Q2): Revenue grew modestly to $217.5M (+3.11% YoY), and gross margin improved to 24.43 (+34.60% YoY), which is a constructive operating signal. However, profitability worsened materially: net income fell to -$44.93M (-47.35% YoY) and EPS declined to -0.41 (-58.59% YoY). Net result: improving margins but still a deepening loss profile, which is not the kind of quarter that typically fuels sustained upside without an external catalyst.
Recent Street stance is broadly cautious/neutral. Multiple firms cut price targets to $10 from $20 (Roth Capital on 2026-01-20; Alliance Global on 2026-01-09) while maintaining Neutral. Canaccord initiated at Hold (2026-01-27) citing regulatory headwinds and a tough beer market. Earlier, Bernstein lifted PT to $10 (from $1) on regulatory optimism (2025-12-19), and ATB upgraded to Sector Perform with an $8.50 PT (2025-12-10). Wall Street pros: potential upside leverage to U.S. regulatory change and some margin improvement. Cons: ongoing losses, limited visibility into long-term cash flow, and heavy dependence on legislative outcomes—overall not a strong “buy now” consensus.
