TKR Should I Buy
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$
0.000
0.000(0.000%)
At close0.000(0.000%)Aft-market
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Not a good buy right now. Despite an overall bullish longer-term trend (stacked moving averages) and improving margin profile, near-term momentum is weakening (MACD histogram negative and expanding), the stock is sitting right on the pivot (~93.0) after a down session, and the probabilistic forward-return read is modestly negative over the next week. With insiders selling aggressively and earnings (Feb 4, pre-market) close, the risk/reward for an impatient buyer today is not attractive. I would hold off and only reconsider on a reclaim above ~94.9 (R1) with improving momentum, or a cleaner dip toward ~91.2–90.0 (S1/S2) that stabilizes.
Trend/structure: Bullish moving-average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) suggests the bigger-picture trend is still constructive. Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.195 and negatively expanding = bearish momentum is building in the very near term. RSI: RSI_6 ~51 is neutral, implying no oversold bounce signal yet. Levels: Pivot ~93.02 is being tested (post-market ~93.19). Upside resistance at ~94.87 (R1) then ~96.02 (R2). Downside support at ~91.17 (S1) then ~90.02 (S2). Given weakening MACD, a drift toward S1/S2 is plausible unless price quickly reclaims R1. Quant-style near-term bias (pattern analogs): 30% chance of -2.1% next day; expected drift shown as -1.61% next week and ~flat next month (-0.16%).
Management/strategy narrative: Recent investor meetings highlighted 80/20 strategy revisions and potential for top- and bottom-line inflection in a healthier demand backdrop.
Insider selling: Insider selling is flagged as increasing sharply (+232.99% over the last month), which is a near-term sentiment overhang.
Near-term momentum deterioration: MACD histogram negative and expanding; price is weak into the close and post-market.
Earnings proximity: With earnings on 2026-02-04, near-term uncertainty is elevated (and options IV is already high).
Mixed end-market commentary: Prior commentary suggests some markets remain challenged near-term (e.g., agriculture/truck per Citi note), even if 2026 improves.
No supportive news flow: No positive news catalyst in the last week to counter the current momentum slip.
Latest quarter (2025/Q3): Revenue $1.157B, +2.69% YoY (modest growth). Net income $69.3M, -15.28% YoY; EPS $0.99, -14.66% YoY (profitability down YoY despite higher sales). Gross margin 30.14%, +4.58% YoY (better pricing/mix/efficiency, but not fully translating to bottom-line growth this quarter). Overall: topline and gross margin are improving, but earnings growth is currently negative—consistent with a stock that can work longer-term but may chop/soften near-term.
Recent trend: Analyst price targets have been revised upward into late 2025 and early 2026. Oppenheimer moved from $88 -> $90 (Nov 24) and then materially higher to $104 (Jan 26) while reiterating Outperform. Citi raised PT from $90 -> $100 (Dec 11) with a Buy. DA Davidson raised PT from $80 -> $86 (Nov 3) but stayed Neutral. Wall Street pros: Expectations for better 2026 setup, portfolio/strategy execution under new leadership, favorable price carryover/currency, and discounted valuation narrative. Wall Street cons: Some end markets still soft near-term, and at least one major shop remains Neutral (suggesting upside exists but timing/visibility is debated). Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; no politician activity provided. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals:
