Should I Buy THG? THG 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

175.970

1 Day change

-1.17%

52 Week Range

188.180

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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THG is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. Despite strong recent fundamentals, near-term technicals and options sentiment skew bearish and the stock is trading near resistance (~175). I would wait for a pullback closer to ~171 (pivot) or ~169 (S1) before considering entry; at current levels the risk/reward looks unfavorable into the next few days/weeks.

Technical Analysis

Price/levels: Post-market ~~174.14, sitting just below R2 (~~175.21) and above pivot (~171.33), meaning upside is immediately capped while downside has room to the 171/169 area. Trend: Longer-term trend looks weak/late-cycle because moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), suggesting price is still below key longer-term trendlines. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive and expanding (bullish short-term momentum), and RSI(6) ~62 is neutral-to-mildly strong but not overbought. Bias: Mixed—short-term momentum is improving, but the broader MA structure remains bearish and the stock is near resistance. Pattern/quant outlook provided: Similar-pattern projection implies downside risk (70% chance of -1.42% next day, -3.96% next week, -10.99% next month).

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Bearish tilt. Put open interest exceeds calls (OI P/C 1.61) and put volume dominates (Volume P/C 3.0), pointing to hedging/speculation skewed to downside. Activity/positioning: Today’s option volume is elevated versus its recent average (today vs 30D avg ~23x), suggesting a notable burst of positioning. Volatility: IV (30D) ~23.89 vs HV ~22.2 (slight premium). IV percentile ~70 indicates options are relatively expensive vs recent history, consistent with increased demand for protection/uncertainty.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

showed strong profitability acceleration: EPS +75% YoY and Net Income +75% YoY, with Revenue +6.4% YoY.
could act as a catalyst if results/guide beat expectations.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

and price is pressing resistance (~175), raising odds of rejection/pullback.

Financial Performance

2025/Q3 (latest provided): Revenue $1.6537B (+6.40% YoY). Net income $178.7M (+75.02% YoY). EPS $4.91 (+75.36% YoY). This is a strong growth inflection in profitability, suggesting operating leverage/underwriting and/or investment income tailwinds. Takeaway: Fundamentals are clearly improving, but the current setup looks more like a ‘good company, less attractive entry today’ given near-term technical/positioning headwinds.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent direction: Price targets moved up modestly with generally balanced stances.

2025-11-04: Keefe Bruyette reiterates Outperform; PT raised to $200 (from $198).
2025-11-24: RBC initiates Sector Perform; PT $200; notes valuation is becoming more challenging and the turnaround story is closer to completion (risk/reward more balanced).
2025-12-03: JPMorgan item appears to reference 'THG Plc' in GBp (likely not the same U.S.-listed Hanover Insurance Group), so it should be treated cautiously for this ticker. Wall St. pro view (pros/cons): Pros—credible PTs around $200 and at least one Outperform; Cons—commentary suggests upside may be more limited as valuation gets harder and the ‘easy gains’ may be behind. Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge fund and insider trend data provided are neutral.

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast THG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for THG is 200.8 USD with a low forecast of 194 USD and a high forecast of 210 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 178.060

Low

194

Averages

200.8

High

210

Current: 178.060

Low

194

Averages

200.8

High

210

JPMorgan

Neutral

upgrade

AI Analysis

2025-12-03

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

AI Analysis

2025-12-03

upgrade

Neutral

Reason

JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on THG Plc to 55 GBp from 43 GBp and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

RBC Capital

Rowland Mayor

Sector Perform

initiated

$200

2025-11-24

Reason

RBC Capital

Rowland Mayor

Price Target

$200

2025-11-24

initiated

Sector Perform

Reason

RBC Capital analyst Rowland Mayor initiated coverage of The Hanover with a Sector Perform rating and $200 price target. The stock's valuation is "becoming more challenging" at current levels at a time when the company's turnaround story reaching its conclusion, the analyst tells investors in a research note. RBC believes Hanover's risk/reward has become more balanced with the easy gains being realized.

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THG Should I Buy

THG Should I Buy

Should You Buy Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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