Should I Buy TFPM? TFPM 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

34.250

1 Day change

4.55%

52 Week Range

40.290

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader. TFPM just sold off hard (regular session -9.84% after a -7.17% pre-market drop) and is trading slightly below near-term support (S1 ~~34.53). Momentum is still deteriorating (MACD histogram negative and expanding), which raises the odds of another quick flush toward S2 (~~32.91) before a durable bounce. While longer-term trend structure (SMA5>SMA20>SMA200), bullish options positioning, strong Q3 growth, and rising Street price targets are constructive, the current tape is still “falling knife” territory. I would wait for stabilization (e.g., reclaim/hold above ~34.5–35 and improving momentum) before buying.

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: TFPM is in a sharp short-term down move (big gap-like drop) despite a bullish longer-term moving-average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting the primary trend was up but the near-term trend has flipped risk-off.

Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.275 and negatively expanding signals accelerating bearish momentum and typically argues against immediate dip-buying.

RSI: RSI_6 ~25 is effectively oversold (despite the label provided), which can support a bounce attempt, but oversold can stay oversold when MACD is still worsening.

Key levels:

Support: S1 ~34.529 (price ~34.1 is below it), then S2 ~32.909.
Resistance: Pivot ~37.152, then R1 ~39.775. Near-term setup: a bounce is possible from oversold conditions, but confirmation would be reclaiming/holding above ~34.5–35; otherwise downside risk remains to ~32.9.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put-call ratios are very low (OI PCR 0.42; Volume PCR 0.18), which is typically bullish/“calls favored” positioning.

Activity/Positioning: Total volume is light in absolute terms (100 contracts), but today’s volume vs 30-day average is elevated (~21.74), implying unusual attention.

Volatility: 30D IV ~40.21 vs HV ~51.59 suggests options are not extremely expensive relative to realized moves; IV percentile ~64.8 indicates IV is moderately elevated versus its recent distribution, consistent with heightened uncertainty after the selloff.

Takeaway: Options flow/positioning leans bullish, but it’s not yet overpowering the bearish price momentum in the underlying.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Analyst targets recently moved up meaningfully (BofA to $43; Scotiabank to $43; Canaccord to C$
alongside improved gold/silver macro forecasts.
Strong operating momentum in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3): revenue +26.86% YoY, net income +108.83% YoY, EPS +100% YoY, gross margin up sharply.
Options market positioning is call-leaning (low put-call ratios), which can support rebounds if selling pressure fades.
Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 results on 2026-02-23 (after hours) could act as a catalyst if results/capital returns impress.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Short-term technical damage: large single-day selloff and MACD worsening indicates ongoing downside momentum.
Price is currently below first support (S1 ~~34.53); a failure to reclaim it increases probability of a quick move toward S2 (~~32.91).
No supportive near-term news flow in the past week to counteract the selloff.
Pattern-based outlook provided: 70% chance of ~-1.13% next day (near-term bias still slightly negative).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter reported: 2025/Q3.

Revenue: 93.456M, +26.86% YoY (healthy top-line growth).
Net income: 61.916M, +108.83% YoY (strong profitability expansion).
EPS: 0.30, +100% YoY.
Gross margin: 68.54, up materially (+37.71% YoY as given). Assessment: Fundamentals show strong growth and improving profitability, supportive of higher medium-term value, but they are not preventing near-term technical de-risking today.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Wall Street has been raising price targets into late Jan 2026, while ratings remain mostly not aggressively bullish across the board.

2026-01-26 Scotiabank: PT raised to $43 from $34; rating Sector Perform.
2026-01-23 Canaccord: PT raised to C$56 from C$50; rating Hold.
2026-01-19 BofA: PT raised to $43 from $37; rating Buy. What pros are seeing (bull case): Improved gold/silver macro drivers (economic/geopolitical uncertainty, central bank buying), expectation of strong capital returns, and solid company fundamentals. What pros are cautious about (bear/neutral case): Despite higher targets, multiple firms still sit at Hold/Sector Perform, implying valuation and/or commodity-cycle sensitivity and execution timing keep conviction tempered. Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders show neutral activity.

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast TFPM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TFPM is 37.63 USD with a low forecast of 31 USD and a high forecast of 47.55 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 32.760

Low

Averages

37.63

High

47.55

Current: 32.760

Low

Averages

37.63

High

47.55

CIBC

Outperformer

maintain

AI Analysis

2026-02-04

New

Reason

CIBC

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-02-04

New

maintain

Outperformer

Reason

CIBC raised the firm's price target on Triple Flag to C$74 from C$66 and keeps an Outperformer rating on the shares. CIBC increased targets across the precious metals group after upped its gold price forecasts to $6,000 per ounce in 2026 and $6,500 in 2027. It also upped copper price assumptions. The same demand drivers from 2025 will remain in place in 2026 but there is heightened geopolitical uncertainty, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Scotiabank

Tanya Jakusconek

Sector Perform

maintain

$34 -> $43

2026-01-26

Reason

Scotiabank

Tanya Jakusconek

Price Target

$34 -> $43

2026-01-26

maintain

Sector Perform

Reason

Scotiabank analyst Tanya Jakusconek raised the firm's price target on Triple Flag to $43 from $34 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. The firm is updating its price targets for Gold & Precious Minerals stocks under its coverage, the analyst tells investors. The firm has increased both gold and silver forecasts, supported by economic and geopolitical uncertainty as well as strong central bank buying.

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TFPM Should I Buy

TFPM Should I Buy

Should You Buy Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp (TFPM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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