TFIN Should I Buy
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0.000(0.000%)
At close0.000(0.000%)Aft-market
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Buy now. TFIN just sold off 3% and is sitting directly on key support (63.05) while fundamentals and forward commentary improved (earnings beat, cost savings, payments-margin expansion target). Options positioning is strongly call-skewed (very low put/call OI), suggesting bullish sentiment into/after results. With an impatient profile (no waiting for a perfect entry), the current near-support price offers a favorable immediate entry for a rebound toward the mid/high-60s and potentially the ~$70 area implied by the latest raised price target.
Price/levels: Post-market ~63.09, essentially at S1 support 63.052 (next support S2 ~59.314). Resistance stack: Pivot ~69.103 then R1 ~75.154. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.96) and expanding lower, confirming the near-term downtrend is still active. RSI: RSI(6) ~33.25, leaning oversold/weak; this often coincides with late-stage pullbacks and short-term bounce potential, especially at support. Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest consolidation/transition, but not a confirmed uptrend yet. Bottom line: Trend is short-term bearish, but the stock is at a key support with oversold momentum—an actionable bounce setup for a quick move back toward ~69 if support holds.
Earnings/outperformance: Reported Q4 GAAP EPS $0.77 (beat by $0.
and revenue $120M (beat by ~$9.29M).
Profitability roadmap: Core payments business targeting >30% EBITDA margin in 2026, long-term goal 50%.
Cost actions: Confirmed ~$6M annual cost savings (included in Q1 estimates).
Growth initiatives: LoadPay annualized revenue ~$1.5M with plan to triple in 2026 (7,000–12,000 accounts).
Pattern-based forward drift: Similar-pattern stats point to modest upside over 1 week (+1.77%) and 1 month (+4.5%).
Near-term guidance headwind: Management expects Q1 revenue decline due to seasonal factors.
Technical pressure: MACD is bearishly expanding; the stock must hold ~63 support to avoid a slide toward ~
Options are pricey: Elevated IV can fade after major events, which can dampen momentum if buyers don’t follow through.
Latest reported quarter (Q4, reported 2026-01-26): GAAP EPS $0.77 vs expectations (+$0.47 beat) and revenue $120M vs expectations (+$9.29M beat), indicating strong operating performance versus market forecasts. Provided historical snapshot: 2025/Q2 revenue $106.57M (+4.53% YoY), net income $3.62M (+86.02% YoY), EPS $0.15 (+87.50% YoY) — showing improving profitability and accelerating earnings power. Growth trend takeaway: Revenue growth is positive and profitability is improving sharply, reinforced by explicit cost-savings and margin-expansion targets.
Recent change: On 2026-01-28, Keefe Bruyette raised the price target to $70 from $66 while maintaining a Market Perform rating. Wall Street pros view (pros): Higher PT post-results suggests improving outlook; earnings beat + cost savings + payments-margin expansion narrative support upside from current levels. Wall Street cons view (cons): Market Perform implies the analyst sees upside as more limited/‘fairly valued’ versus higher-conviction Buy-rated opportunities. Ownership/flow checks: Hedge funds and insiders show neutral activity recently. No recent Congress trading data available, and no politician/influential-figure buys/sells were provided.
