TEX Should I Buy
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TEX is not a good buy right now. Price action is weakening into earnings, momentum is bearish (MACD negative and expanding), and the stock is breaking below the near-term support zone (~56.74). With no proprietary buy signals today and short-horizon pattern stats skewing negative over the next week/month, the risk/reward is unattractive for an impatient buyer. I would avoid new entries here (and trim/sell if you already hold) until the stock reclaims key levels above ~59.3.
Trend/momentum: Bearish near-term. The MACD histogram (-0.653) is below zero and negatively expanding, signaling increasing downside momentum. RSI(6) at 31 is near oversold territory, but not yet showing a confirmed reversal signal.
Levels: Pivot ~59.28 is the key “line in the sand” for bulls. Post-market ~56.44 is below S1 (56.74), implying a breakdown of first support; next support is S2 (~55.18). Overhead resistance sits at ~61.81 (R1) and ~63.38 (R2).
Read-through: With moving averages converging (no strong uptrend support) and price sitting below the pivot and slipping through S1, the technical setup favors further downside or choppy weakness unless TEX quickly recovers back above ~59.3.
Earnings catalyst: Q4 and FY2025 results on 2026-02-11 (pre-market) can reset expectations quickly if guidance surprises to the upside.
Analyst backdrop improving at the margin: Morgan Stanley moved to Overweight (PT $
and Citi added an upside 30-day catalyst watch (PT $62), suggesting potential for a better-than-feared aerials performance and 2026 re-stocking tailwinds.
Flows: Hedge funds are reported as net buyers with a sharp increase in buying activity vs last quarter.
Weak tape into earnings: bearish MACD expansion and a break below first support (~56.
increases odds of further downside before any rebound.
Options flow turns defensive: very high put-heavy option volume indicates traders are positioning for (or hedging against) downside.
Near-term statistical drift is negative: the provided pattern analogs imply a negative bias over the next week (-2.23%) and month (-5.88%).
Fundamental quality of growth is mixed: revenue growth is strong, but profits/EPS are declining YoY (see financials), which can pressure multiples if Q4 guidance disappoints.
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to $1.387B (+14.44% YoY), showing solid top-line growth. However, profitability weakened: net income fell to $65M (-26.14% YoY) and EPS fell to $0.98 (-25.19% YoY). Gross margin improved slightly to 20.33% (+0.59 YoY), suggesting some operating/leverage or cost factors outside gross margin pressured the bottom line. Net: growth is present, but earnings momentum is deteriorating heading into the Q4 print (2026-02-11).
Recent trend: sentiment has improved modestly from late-2025 caution to early-2026 more constructive commentary. Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight (PT $60) in Dec-2025 citing troughing earnings and a bottoming non-residential cycle; Citi remains Neutral (PT $62) but flagged a 30-day upside catalyst watch; Wells Fargo lifted PT to $56 while staying Equal Weight. Wall Street pros: potential cycle bottoming, better-than-feared aerials segment performance, and re-stocking tailwinds in 2026. Wall Street cons: several firms still sit at Neutral/Equal Weight, and prior notes flagged elevated deal/portfolio risk and possible dilution/valuation questions; mixed earnings quality (EPS down YoY) is the key fundamental overhang. Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days; insiders are reported as neutral with no notable recent trend.
