TERN Should I Buy
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BUY right now. Despite a still-soft near-term technical setup (MACD below zero), TERN is trading near a defined support zone (33.9–35.0) after a major re-rating, while Wall Street has aggressively raised targets into the mid/high-$50s on differentiated Phase 1 CARDINAL/ASH data for TERN-701. Options positioning also leans bullish (put/call ratios < 1). For an impatient buyer, the current post-market area (35.25) is an acceptable entry point with upside skew driven primarily by continued clinical execution and expanding 1L/2L CML expectations.
Price/levels: Post-market ~35.25 sits just below the Pivot (35.706), with nearby support at S1=33.932 (then S2=32.836) and resistance at R1=37.481 (then R2=38.577). Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.483) but 'negatively contracting' suggests downside momentum is fading (often consistent with basing). RSI(6)=38.69 is weak but not deeply oversold—consistent with a pullback/consolidation rather than an active uptrend. Moving averages are converging, signaling consolidation and a potential inflection zone rather than a clean trend. Practical read: near-term trend is neutral-to-slightly bearish, but price is close to support where rebounds commonly start if buyers step in.
Strong clinical narrative: Multiple firms cite best-in-class efficacy/tolerability for TERN-701 from updated Phase 1 CARDINAL/ASH data, including strong 6-month MMR rates and activity post-asciminib/ponatinib, expanding perceived 1L and 2L+ opportunity.
Major analyst-driven re-rating: A cluster of price target raises (roughly mid-$50s to $
provides near-term sentiment/flows support.
Setup near support: Trading near ~33.9–35 support with fading downside momentum (contracting negative MACD) can favor a bounce if buyers defend the level.
Insider selling: Insiders are selling, with selling amount up ~1103% over the last month—this can cap upside and pressure sentiment short-term.
Technicals not yet bullish: MACD remains below zero and moving averages are converging (consolidation), meaning the chart is not confirming a fresh uptrend yet.
No fresh news this week: With no new headlines, the stock may drift and remain more technically driven in the near term.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. As a clinical-stage biotech, revenue remains 0. Losses improved: net income was -$24.635M (12.26% YoY improvement), indicating better cost control versus last year. However, EPS declined slightly to -$0.27 (-3.57% YoY), showing profitability is still distant and results are primarily pipeline/clinical-expectations driven rather than operating-revenue driven.
Recent trend is strongly positive: from mid/late Nov through Dec 2025, multiple firms reiterated Buy/Outperform/Overweight and raised targets sharply (e.g., Oppenheimer $28→$58, H.C. Wainwright $20→$60, Barclays $36→$56, Truist $35→$56, BMO $35→$54, Citizens $35→$57). Wall Street pros: best-in-class potential for TERN-701, strong efficacy + tolerability, and potential expansion into frontline CML; platform confidence. Wall Street cons: durability/follow-up length still a key variable (treatment duration data needed), and the valuation/expectations are now more sensitive to any future trial hiccups after the big move.
