TEM Should I Buy
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0.000
0.000(0.000%)
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TEM is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor because price action is in a clear short-term downtrend and just broke below the first support zone (60.96), with bearish momentum still expanding. While sentiment inputs (options positioning, Ark buying, and positive long-term growth narrative) are constructive, the tape is weak and offers a meaningful chance of near-term downside toward the next support (58.02) before a durable bounce. I would rate it a HOLD (not a fresh buy) until it regains and holds above ~61–62 and starts rebuilding toward the 65.7 pivot.
Trend/momentum are bearish. Moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), confirming a downtrend across timeframes. MACD histogram (-0.46) is below zero and negatively expanding, suggesting downside momentum is still strengthening rather than stabilizing. RSI_6 at 25.9 signals the stock is short-term oversold, which can trigger sharp bounces, but oversold in a falling trend often means 'early' rather than 'safe.' Key levels: the stock (60.05 post-market) is below S1 (60.955), implying a breakdown; next downside support is S2 (58.015). Upside levels to reclaim: pivot 65.715, then resistance at 70.475. Near-term pattern stats provided imply modest positive bias over 1 week/month, but the immediate 1-day edge is slightly negative, aligning with current momentum.
Event-driven/supportive flow: Ark Invest increased its TEM stake (reported purchase), a notable vote of confidence that can support sentiment.
Influential-figure interest: News summary indicates Nancy Pelosi’s portfolio included significant purchases in Tempus AI, which can act as a sentiment tailwind even if not reflected in the provided congress dataset.
Fundamentals narrative: rapid revenue growth and improving gross margin (see financials) support the long-term growth thesis.
Sector commentary in analyst notes suggests 2026 normalization/headwinds fading for diagnostics/tools broadly could help multiples if growth persists.
Potential catalyst ahead: next earnings (QDEC
on 2026-02-25 after hours—could reset the narrative if guidance/trajectory is strong.
Technical breakdown risk: price is below S1 (~60.
with expanding bearish MACD; a move toward S2 (~58.
is plausible before any sustained rebound.
Analyst target compression: multiple firms cut price targets recently (even where ratings stayed Buy/Neutral), which can cap rallies and reflects tempered forward assumptions.
Profitability still negative: net income remains meaningfully negative, and any deceleration in growth or slower margin progress could be punished.
Pre-earnings uncertainty: with earnings a few weeks away, volatility can rise on positioning/guidance expectations, especially after a sharp selloff day (-5.81% regular session).
Latest provided quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew strongly to ~$334.2M (+84.72% YoY), indicating rapid top-line expansion. Gross margin improved to ~62.82% (+7.38% YoY), a positive quality-of-growth signal. Losses narrowed only modestly: net income was about -$80.0M (improved ~5.46% YoY) and EPS remained negative (-0.46). Takeaway: growth and margin trend are strong, but the business is still not near profitability, so the stock remains sensitive to any growth slowdown or higher expense trajectory.
Recent Street trend: price targets have generally moved down since mid-November through January (e.g., TD Cowen 88→76 Hold; Canaccord 95→80 Buy; JPM 85→80 Neutral; BofA 90→80 Neutral), reflecting valuation/model resets and a more conservative forward curve. There are still bullish voices (e.g., BTIG Buy with higher target previously; Morgan Stanley Overweight), but the dominant near-term change is target compression rather than upgrades. Wall Street pros view: (Pros) durable growth drivers cited (data/pharma business, Ambry growth, potential high-margin algorithm/software upside), strong revenue growth, improving gross margin. (Cons) expectations for 2026 growth to be 'healthy' but lower than 2025, continued losses, and less favorable near-term setup after the recent selloff. Overall: mixed-to-cautiously positive fundamentals, but near-term enthusiasm has cooled.
