TCPC Should I Buy
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$
0.000
0.000(0.000%)
At close0.000(0.000%)Aft-market
ET
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Not a good buy right now. TCPC is in a clear downtrend with weakening momentum, heavy recent negative headlines (NAV shock + multiple law-firm investigations), and recent analyst price-target cuts. With no Intellectia buy signals and a short-term pattern model skewed negative over the next day/week, an impatient buyer is more likely to get a worse entry after further downside than to catch an immediate rebound.
Trend and momentum are bearish. Moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating sustained downside pressure. MACD histogram is negative (-0.0548) and expanding lower, suggesting bearish momentum is strengthening rather than stabilizing. RSI(6) at ~32.6 is near oversold but still not giving a clean reversal signal—more consistent with 'weak bounce risk' than a confirmed bottom. Key levels: immediate support S1 ~5.036 (recent trade ~5.17–5.18); a break below S1 exposes S2 ~4.786. Overhead resistance is the pivot ~5.441 then R1 ~5.846, which price would need to reclaim to improve the near-term setup. Pattern-based forecast also leans bearish: ~60% chance of -2.45% next day and -4.23% next week (only +1.46% next month), implying poor timing for an impatient entry.
Near-term 'oversold-adjacent' condition (RSI(
~32.
can produce sharp technical bounces, especially if S1 (~5.
holds.
Upcoming earnings (QDEC
on 2026-02-27 pre-market (Est. EPS 0.
could act as a catalyst if credit marks stabilize and management reassures investors after the NAV decline.
OI put/call below 1.0 suggests positioning is not aggressively bearish, reducing the chance of a one-sided options market.
Major fundamental shock: reported ~19% drop in net asset value for Q4 2025 (news 2026-01-
followed by a sharp selloff (~13% drop on 2026-01-26), indicating impaired investor confidence.
Multiple law-firm investigations/class-action solicitation headlines (2026-01-27 to 2026-01-
add sustained headline overhang and can keep buyers sidelined.
Technical setup is decisively bearish (bearish MA stack + negative, expanding MACD).
Analysts are cutting price targets and at least one remains Underweight, reinforcing the negative narrative.
Short-horizon statistical outlook (next day/week) is biased to further downside, which is unfavorable for an impatient entry.
Latest provided quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue declined to 47,604,216 (-18.89% YoY), showing top-line pressure. However, profitability metrics improved: net income rose to 24,369,712 (+12.65% YoY) and EPS increased to 0.29 (+16.00% YoY). Gross margin was very high but slightly down (98.56, -0.28% YoY). Overall: earnings held up in Q3 despite revenue contraction, but the subsequent Q4 2025 NAV drop reported in the news is a significant negative development that likely outweighs the Q3 EPS growth trend in the market’s current pricing.
Recent trend is negative: price targets have been reduced and ratings are not bullish. Keefe Bruyette (2025-11-07) cut PT to $7 from $7.50, maintained Market Perform (neutral stance). Wells Fargo (2025-11-10) cut PT to $5.50 from $6 and maintained Underweight, explicitly highlighting credit/restructured-credit risk after a write-off (bearish fundamental concern). Wall Street 'pros' view: Pros—some coverage remains neutral (Market Perform) and prior PTs imply upside vs current ~$5.18. Cons—credit quality/NAV volatility risks are front-and-center, and the most negative analyst maintains Underweight with a PT close to current price, limiting confidence in near-term upside. Trading flows: hedge funds neutral (no strong quarterly trend), insiders neutral (no strong monthly trend). Politician/congress activity: no recent congress trading data available.
