TCBK Should I Buy
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BUY right now for a near-term (weeks-to-months) move higher. At $49.82 post-market, TCBK is sitting just below the pivot (50.06) and above first support (~48.70), with bullish moving-average structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and improving fundamentals coming out of 2025/Q4. There’s no Intellectia proprietary buy signal today (AI Stock Picker and SwingMax are both absent), so this is not a “must-buy today” momentum setup—but for an impatient buyer, the risk/reward is still favorable given raised Street targets ($54–$59) and solid Q4 momentum.
Trend/structure: Bullish trend bias with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, suggesting an established uptrend. Momentum: MACD histogram is slightly negative (-0.00968) but negatively contracting (bearish pressure fading). RSI(6) ~56.3 is neutral-to-mildly bullish (not overbought). Levels: Pivot 50.064 (price slightly below—needs reclaim for cleaner upside), Resistance R1 51.424 then R2 52.264. Support S1 48.704 then S2 47.864. Tactical read: This looks like a constructive pullback/pausing action within an uptrend. A reclaim and hold above ~50.06 improves odds of a push toward ~51.4–52.3. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Stronger operating momentum out of 2025/Q4: loan production ramp and improved margin cited by analysts.
Analyst target raises clustered in late January (supports near-term sentiment): $54–$59 targets.
Strategic optionality: Stephens notes TCBK as a potential near-term buyer; if M&A doesn’t happen, a takeout thesis could strengthen later in
Technical backdrop remains bullish on moving averages, with price near support providing a decent “buy now” level for an impatient entry.
Options positioning shows a very high put/call open interest ratio (4.24), implying defensive hedging or bearish skew.
Momentum isn’t fully confirmed: MACD is still slightly negative and price is just below the key pivot (~50.06).
Macro/regional bank sensitivity: if rates move against NIM expectations or credit quality weakens, the market can re-rate the group quickly.
Pattern-based projection provided suggests mild weakness near-term (next week expectation -1.03%), so upside may not be immediate day-to-day.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Growth: Revenue $102.662M (+9.74% YoY), Net Income $33.634M (+15.84% YoY), EPS $1.03 (+17.05% YoY). Quality of growth: Earnings and EPS grew faster than revenue, consistent with margin/expense leverage improvements highlighted by analysts. Overall, the quarter supports a constructive forward view into 2026.
Recent trend: Analysts have been raising price targets following Q4 results.
