TCBI Should I Buy
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Buy TCBI now. The stock is in a clear bullish trend (bullish MA stack + positive/expanding MACD), fundamentals just inflected higher (Q4 2025 strong YoY growth), and the post-earnings analyst actions skew upward on targets. With price around 101 and the pivot support near ~100.3, the current level still looks like a workable entry for an impatient buyer, with the next upside area around ~103.8 (R1) and ~105.9 (R2).
Trend/structure: Bullish. Moving averages are aligned positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating an established uptrend. Momentum: MACD histogram is +0.109 and expanding, confirming strengthening upside momentum. RSI: RSI_6 at 66.78 is still technically ‘neutral’ but approaching the upper range—momentum is strong, not yet screaming reversal. Key levels: Pivot support ~100.31 (near current price ~101). If it holds, upside tests are likely at R1 ~103.79 then R2 ~105.94. Deeper support sits near S1 ~96.83. Pattern-based forward look: Similar-pattern stats imply modest drift higher (approx +0.34% 1-week, +2.3% 1-month), consistent with a grind-up trend rather than a breakout sprint.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Strong Q4 earnings beat: reported ~2.08–2.12 EPS range cited across sources, with revenue around ~$318.6M–$327.5M; clearly above expectations.
Fundamental momentum: management execution showing in NII strength, expense control, and ROA staying above the ~1.1% target area for multiple quarters (per analyst commentary).
Analyst target raises clustered after the report (KBW to $110 Outperform; Stephens to $114 Overweight; RBC to $110; Raymond James to $105 Outperform, etc.).
Flows: Hedge funds are buying, with buying amount up ~640.85% over the last quarter.
Street not unanimous: Citi reiterated Sell (PT raised to $
and Barclays kept Underweight (PT $100), highlighting skepticism on forward balance sheet growth and/or valuation.
Growth constraint risk: some analysts flag slower-than-expected balance sheet growth in
Near-term technical stretch risk: RSI ~66.8 suggests the stock is getting closer to short-term ‘hot’ levels (more prone to pauses), though trend remains bullish.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Growth: Revenue $318.566M (+15.74% YoY), Net Income $96.347M (+44.42% YoY), EPS $2.12 (+52.52% YoY). Takeaway: This is a clear acceleration in profitability vs revenue (operating leverage), consistent with the analyst narrative of better NII plus expense discipline and stable credit/provisions.
Recent trend: Broad wave of post-Q4 price target increases across the coverage universe. Upgrades/positive holds: KBW Outperform ($110), Stephens Overweight ($114), Raymond James Outperform ($105). Several “neutral/hold” shops still raised targets (TD Cowen Hold to $110; Piper Neutral to $96; DA Davidson Neutral to $104; RBC Sector Perform to $110). Bearish holdouts: Citi kept Sell (PT $88) despite raising; Barclays kept Underweight (PT $100). Wall Street pros vs cons: Pros: strong quarter, NII strength, expense control, ROA trending above target, improving turnaround credibility. Cons: concerns about 2026 balance sheet growth pace and lingering skepticism reflected by Sell/Underweight ratings.
