TBLA Should I Buy
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TBLA is not a good buy right now for an impatient trader. The tape is weak (regular session -2.91%), momentum is deteriorating (MACD negative and expanding), and near-term pattern stats skew bearish (higher probability of additional downside over the next day/week/month). While the stock is very oversold and could bounce near support (~4.02/3.96), there is no Intellectia buy signal today and heavy insider selling undermines confidence in an immediate rebound. I would avoid initiating a new long at current levels; only reconsider if price reclaims ~4.19–4.25 with improving momentum.
Trend/Momentum: Bearish-to-weak. MACD histogram is -0.0288 and negatively expanding, which typically signals downside momentum is strengthening. RSI(6) is ~20.35, which is deeply oversold (even if labeled 'neutral' in the feed), suggesting bounce potential—but oversold alone is not a buy signal without confirmation. Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest a transition zone, but current momentum indicators still point lower rather than a confirmed reversal. Key levels: Pivot 4.104. Immediate support S1 4.016 then S2 3.962. Resistance R1 4.192 then R2 4.246. With post-market around 4.02, the stock is sitting on/just above S1; a clean break below 4.016 raises odds of testing 3.962 quickly. Quant pattern outlook: Similar-pattern projection shows a 60% chance of -4.02% next day, -1.38% next week, -5.19% next month—near-term bias remains downward.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Upcoming catalyst: Q4 and FY2025 results on 2026-02-25 (pre-market). A strong print or forward guidance could trigger a re-rating.
Analyst narrative support: Rosenblatt initiated Buy with a $6 PT, arguing TBLA is mischaracterized as a secular loser and is benefiting from AI-driven direct marketing; B. Riley raised PT to $5 after a Q3 beat and improved FY2025 outlook (per analyst note).
Options positioning: Extremely call-skewed open interest can act as a supportive sentiment backdrop if price starts to turn up.
Price/technical pressure: Down sharply in the regular session and sitting on key support; MACD downside momentum is increasing.
Insider behavior: Insiders are selling aggressively (selling amount up ~25161% over the last month per feed), a meaningful bearish signal for near-term confidence.
Fundamental quality pressure: Q3 showed revenue growth but sharp deterioration in profitability and gross margin (details below), which can cap upside until margins stabilize.
Event risk: Earnings on 2026-02-25 introduces binary risk; with weak momentum, the stock can drift lower into the print.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth: Revenue increased to 496,764,000 (+14.72% YoY), indicating healthy top-line growth. Profitability: Net income fell to 5,244,000 (-181.25% YoY) and EPS fell to 0.02 (-200% YoY), showing significant earnings compression. Margins: Gross margin declined to 27.98 (-8.83% YoY), reinforcing that the main issue is margin/profitability deterioration despite revenue growth. Bottom line: The company is growing, but the latest quarter’s margin and earnings trend is negative—this weakens the case for buying immediately without technical confirmation.
Recent trend: Analyst updates skew positive with improving targets. B. Riley reiterated Buy and raised PT to $5 (from $4.50) after a Q3 beat and higher FY2025 outlook. Rosenblatt initiated Buy with a $6 PT, emphasizing TBLA’s AI positioning and publisher footprint resilience. Wall Street pros: Re-rating potential if TBLA proves durable growth and share gains in AI-driven direct marketing; multiple Buy ratings with targets above the current ~$4 level imply upside if execution holds. Wall Street cons: The market is focused on profitability quality—Q3 margin and earnings deterioration can keep the multiple depressed; near-term price action is not confirming the bullish thesis yet. Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; no politician activity provided in the dataset.
