TAP Should I Buy
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0.000(0.000%)
At close0.000(0.000%)Aft-market
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Not a good buy right now. TAP is sitting near support (~47.7) which can attract dip-buyers, and insider buying is a real positive, but the broader setup is still bearish (downtrend moving averages + weakening MACD) and Wall Street sentiment has recently tilted more cautious with downgrades/underweight calls. With no Intellectia buy signal today and earnings coming up (2026-02-18), the risk/reward for an impatient buyer is not attractive enough to justify a fresh entry here. If you already own it, holding makes more sense than adding.
Trend/structure: Bearish. The moving averages are stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), signaling a sustained downtrend. Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.249 and negatively expanding, implying downside momentum is strengthening rather than stabilizing. RSI: RSI_6 at ~40.8 is neutral-to-weak (not oversold), so there’s room for further downside before a classic oversold bounce signal. Key levels: Pivot 49.00 is overhead; price must reclaim/hold above it to improve the near-term tape. Resistance: 50.28 then 51.07. Support: 47.73 (S1) and 46.94 (S2). With the post-market around 47.5, the stock is already leaning on support—good for a potential bounce, but also vulnerable to a breakdown if sellers push it through 46.9. Pattern-based probabilistic trend (provided): modest expected drift near-term (next day/week) but stronger 1-month skew (+9.23%)—that longer-horizon upside is less actionable for an impatient entry given current bearish momentum.
can spark short-term mean reversion if buyers defend the level.
on 2026-02-18 after hours—near-term buyers risk getting ‘timed’ by a downside reaction if guidance disappoints.
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $2.973B, down 2.27% YoY (top line soft).
Profitability: Net income -$2.928B and EPS -14.79 (very large loss vs prior year). This reads like a major one-time hit/impairment-type quarter rather than normal earnings power, but it still weighs on sentiment and headline fundamentals.
Margins: Gross margin ~39.47%, slightly down (0.13% YoY), suggesting no meaningful margin expansion in the reported snapshot.
Growth takeaway: The quarter shows weakening revenue and a sharply negative bottom line, so fundamentals are not currently reinforcing a bullish technical entry.
Recent trend: More cautious overall. Since Q3 results, multiple firms have cut price targets and/or downgraded (e.g., Wells Fargo downgrade to Equal Weight; BNP downgraded to Underperform with PT $40; Barclays maintains Underweight even while raising PT to $49). Several Neutral ratings cluster with targets around ~$47–$50. One notable bullish outlier remains (Roth Capital Buy with a much higher PT, cut to $65). Wall Street pros: Potential FY26 improvement from strategic changes/cost actions; valuation/defensiveness appeal; some sequential volume improvement noted by bulls. Wall Street cons: Beer category softness, consumption uncertainty, company/sector fundamentals questioned, and repeated guidance/expectation resets keep ratings restrained.
