Should I Buy TALO? TALO 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Talos Energy Inc (TALO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

12.710

1 Day change

6.01%

52 Week Range

12.720

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. While the technical backdrop is still moderately bullish (stacked moving averages) and options positioning leans constructive, momentum is cooling (MACD contracting) and the latest quarter fundamentals deteriorated sharply (bigger loss, weaker revenue/margins). With no Intellectia buy signals today and pattern-based odds pointing to a negative 1-month drift, the risk/reward for buying immediately is unattractive unless you are specifically trading a breakout above ~12.17.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Bullish moving-average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) suggests the broader trend is still up. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.072) but contracting, indicating upside momentum is fading rather than accelerating. RSI: RSI_6 at 64.1 is neutral-to-slightly warm (not overbought), but not a strong “fresh entry” signal. Key levels: Pivot 11.663. Immediate resistance R1 ~12.168 (a clean break/hold above here would improve the long setup), next R2 ~12.479. Supports S1 ~11.159 then S2 ~10.848; a slip below ~11.16 would weaken the bullish structure. Quant pattern read: Similar-pattern stats suggest ~+0.15% next day, ~+1.05% next week, but ~-8.96% next month—near-term chop/uptick risk giving way to a weaker monthly bias.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment read: Put-call ratios are low (both OI and volume), which is typically bullish/less hedged and suggests traders are not positioned defensively. Volatility: IV30 ~51.96 vs HV ~48.17 (IV modestly above realized), with IV percentile ~58.4—options are not extremely cheap, but also not at panic levels. Positioning caveat: Reported absolute option volume is small (19 contracts), so the day’s put/call signals may be less reliable and more prone to noise.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Potential balance-sheet catalyst: KeyBanc flagged possible refinancing of 2029 Notes (could lower interest expense).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

on 2026-02-24 after hours with estimated EPS of about -0.31; a miss or weak outlook could pressure the stock.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth/profitability trend: Revenue fell to ~$450.1M (-11.63% YoY). Net income dropped to about -$95.9M (worse by -208.77% YoY). EPS fell to -0.55 (-212.24% YoY). Gross margin declined to ~11.91% (-15.11% YoY). Overall, the quarter showed weakening top-line and significant margin/earnings deterioration—fundamentals are currently a headwind for buying aggressively.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Price targets have generally moved up and ratings skew positive.

Citi (2026-01-23): PT raised to $14 (from $12), Buy.
KeyBanc (2025-12-05): PT raised to $13.50 (from $12), Overweight.
Mizuho (2025-12-12): PT raised to $14 (from $11), Neutral.
Roth (2025-12-31): Buy, PT $11 (more conservative), notes Zama progress. Wall Street pros: Rising targets, constructive view on management evolution, potential refinancing benefit. Wall Street cons: Sector sentiment still cautious (oversupply/storage concerns cited), and company fundamentals (recent quarter losses/margin compression) need to improve to justify sustained upside. Influential trading check: No notable insider trend (neutral) and no recent congress trading data available; no politician/influential figure activity provided.

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast TALO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TALO is 13.92 USD with a low forecast of 11 USD and a high forecast of 20 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 11.990

Low

Averages

13.92

High

Current: 11.990

Low

Averages

13.92

High

Citi

Buy

upgrade

$12 -> $14

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

Reason

Citi

Price Target

$12 -> $14

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

upgrade

Buy

Reason

Citi raised the firm's price target on Talos Energy to $14 from $12 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

Roth Capital

Leo Mariani

Buy

maintain

$11

2025-12-31

Reason

Roth Capital

Leo Mariani

Price Target

$11

2025-12-31

maintain

Buy

Reason

Roth Capital analyst Leo Mariani notes that Britain's Harbour Energy announced that it has been named operator of the Zama oil field in Mexico, after project partners Pemex, Grupo Carso and Talos Energy agreed to the appointment. Harbour said that next steps will be the completion of engineering and design work in 2026. Talos currently owns an effective 3.5% interest in the Zama oil project. Roth thinks this will be a positive for the project as it may finally get it moving after many years of indecision. Overall, the firm expects Talos to have a slightly positive reaction vs. peers today. Roth has a Buy rating on Talos with a price target of $11 on the shares.

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TALO Should I Buy

TALO Should I Buy

Should You Buy Talos Energy Inc (TALO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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