T Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now. T just surged on earnings/news and is technically overbought (RSI_6 84) while trading near resistance (26.46). With no proprietary buy signals today and short-term odds skewing toward a pullback over the next month, the risk/reward for an impatient buyer is unfavorable at ~26.1—better treated as a hold (or wait for a dip) rather than chasing strength.
Trend is bullish short-term but stretched. MACD histogram is positive and expanding (0.266), supporting upside momentum. However RSI_6 at ~84.5 flags an overbought condition, often followed by consolidation or mean reversion. Price is above R1 (25.672) and approaching R2 (26.46), making 26.46 a key near-term ceiling; a failed break can trigger a pullback toward the pivot (24.396). Support/resistance: Support S1 23.12 (then S2 22.332); Resistance R2 26.46. Short-horizon pattern stats provided also lean modestly positive next week but negative over the next month (-5.42%), consistent with 'post-earnings pop then fade' risk.
Strong Q4 earnings reaction and resilience narrative; stock rose ~4.3% in regular trading.
Sector tailwind: Verizon’s upbeat profit/free cash flow outlook lifted telecom sentiment broadly.
Strategic catalyst: agreement to acquire Lumen’s fiber business for $5.75B—supports long-term fiber growth and convergence strategy (often rewarded in telecom multiples if execution is clean).
Several Street firms reiterate Buy/Outperform ratings with targets mostly above current price (e.g., DB $33; Oppenheimer $29; Citi/GS around $29).
Competition/price war risk: multiple analysts highlighted higher promotions, churn pressure, slowing subscriber adds, and weaker ARPU growth—could compress margins and dampen 2026 sentiment.
Technical setup is stretched: RSI overbought and price near resistance increases near-term pullback risk for new entries.
Deal integration/near-term financial drag risk from the Lumen fiber acquisition (management expects near-term impacts even if long-term growth improves).
Bear outlier remains: Arete downgraded to Sell with a $20 target (signals not all Street participants agree the risk is contained).
2025/Q4: Revenue grew to $33.466B (+3.62% YoY), showing steady top-line momentum. Profitability was mixed: Net income fell to $3.752B (-6.92% YoY) and EPS to $0.53 (-5.36% YoY), indicating earnings pressure (likely competitive/promotional intensity and mix effects). Gross margin improved to 40.4% (+2.51% YoY), a constructive sign on cost discipline and mix, but not enough this quarter to prevent EPS decline.
Recent trend: price targets have been trimmed by several firms into/around Q4 (reflecting tougher wireless competition), but ratings largely remain constructive (Buy/Outperform/Overweight), with one notable downgrade to Sell (Arete, $20). Latest updates: Oppenheimer cut PT to $29 (kept Outperform) citing price war risk but sees AT&T relatively insulated; Deutsche Bank raised PT to $33 (Buy) after strong Q4 and guidance; TD Cowen slightly lowered to $32 (Hold) noting mixed adds but upside EBITDA; Wells Fargo cut to $27 (Overweight) amid sector sentiment pressure; Bernstein cut to $30 (Outperform) warning competitive intensity persists. Wall Street pros: steady revenue, fiber expansion, FCF potential, relative insulation vs peers. Cons: wireless promo intensity, churn/ARPU pressure, and execution risk around fiber acquisition and competitive dynamics.
