SWIM Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. SWIM is in a clear short-term downtrend (bearish MA stack and worsening MACD), and price (6.28) is trading below the near-term support band (6.31). Despite improving fundamentals and supportive analyst commentary, the tape is still weak; I would avoid initiating a new position at this exact level and treat it as a HOLD/WAIT rather than a buy-now.
Trend/structure: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating the prevailing trend is down. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0214) and negatively expanding, which typically signals weakening momentum and continued downside pressure. RSI: RSI_6 at 33.844 is near oversold territory (still labeled neutral here), suggesting the stock is stretched but not yet showing a confirmed reversal signal. Key levels: Pivot 6.561 (overhead), resistance at R1 6.815 and R2 6.972. Support at S1 6.307 and S2 6.15. With price ~6.28, SWIM is below S1, meaning the stock is currently trading in a “support-break” zone; a quick bounce is possible, but the higher-probability read is that buyers haven’t regained control yet. Pattern-based short-term odds (provided): 60% chance of +1.1% next day, +5.95% next week, +7.42% next month—constructive, but it conflicts with the currently bearish trend signals, so I wouldn’t pay up until price reclaims at least the pivot (6.561) or shows a clear reversal.
Q3 FY2025 execution: revenue +7.58% YoY, net income +37.67% YoY, EPS +40% YoY, and gross margin up to 30.94 (+11.66% YoY), supporting the ‘margin profile improving’ narrative.
Analyst tone: Stifel reiterated Buy and raised PT to $8.75, citing market share gains and stronger margins even in a soft construction environment.
Potential technical snapback: RSI is low-ish and price is near the lower support zone (6.15–6.31), which can produce sharp mean-reversion bounces if buyers step in.
increases the odds of a move toward S2 (~6.
before any sustainable bounce.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth/profitability trends: Revenue rose to $161.903M (+7.58% YoY). Net income rose to $8.117M (+37.67% YoY). EPS increased to $0.07 (+40% YoY). Gross margin improved to 30.94% (+11.66% YoY). Read-through: The quarter shows improving profitability and margin expansion alongside revenue growth—fundamentally positive and consistent with analysts’ ‘execution in soft demand’ comments. This supports the longer-term bull case, but it hasn’t yet translated into a bullish price trend.
Recent changes: Two updates on 2025-11-05 were positive-to-neutral. Stifel maintained a Buy and raised its price target to $8.75 (from $8), pointing to market share gains and stronger margins. Barclays maintained Equal Weight and raised its price target to $8 (from $7), citing consistent execution and gross margin strength. Wall Street pros: Margin expansion, solid execution, and apparent share gains even in a soft demand backdrop. Wall Street cons: New construction/demand softness persists; at least one major firm remains neutral (Equal Weight), implying upside exists but may be capped or timing-dependent.
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