SUPV Should I Buy
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SUPV is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. While the chart structure is still bullish (short-term averages above longer-term averages), price is sitting just below near-term resistance (12.39) after a down day, options flow is heavily put-skewed on volume (bearish near-term), and the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3) showed a sharp deterioration into losses. With no fresh positive news catalysts this week, the risk/reward favors waiting for either a clean breakout above ~12.39–12.93 or a pullback toward support (11.51) rather than buying immediately at ~12.21.
Trend is moderately bullish but momentum is cooling. Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), supporting an uptrend/bullish structure. RSI(6) ~62 is neutral-to-slightly bullish (not overbought), suggesting there is room to move but not a strong edge. MACD histogram is positive (0.115) but positively contracting, indicating bullish momentum is fading. Key levels: Pivot 11.514 (important support/decision area), Resistance R1 12.388 (immediate ceiling just above current 12.21), Resistance R2 12.929 (next breakout target). If price fails to clear 12.39, a drift back toward 11.51 is plausible; a breakout/hold above 12.39 improves odds of a move toward 12.93.
Technical backdrop still constructive due to bullish moving-average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200).
Analyst support on the name exists: Itau BBA initiated Outperform with a $15 target (Dec 2025), implying meaningful upside if execution improves.
Open interest put/call ratio (0.
suggests a more bullish longer-duration positioning base than the daily volume indicates.
Latest quarter weakness (2025/Q
was severe (revenue down sharply; net loss), which can keep a lid on the stock until profitability stabilizes.
Options flow is aggressively bearish on volume (put/call volume 8.52), often aligning with near-term downside or heightened hedging demand.
Momentum is fading (MACD histogram still positive but contracting) and price is currently below immediate resistance (~12.
after a down session (-2.71% regular).
No news catalysts reported in the last week to reverse sentiment quickly.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue fell to 136,540,183.11 (-38.68% YoY). Net income dropped to -37,796,730.51 (down -500.43% YoY, turning deeply negative). EPS was -0.09 (-550.00% YoY). Overall, the quarter shows a sharp deterioration in growth and profitability, which weakens the fundamental support for buying immediately without a clear technical breakout or fresh positive catalyst.
Recent analyst trend is mixed: Citi upgraded to Buy (Nov 2025) citing improved macro/political backdrop for Argentine banks and raised its target (in ARS). UBS initiated Neutral with a $13 target (Nov 2025), pointing to pressures on margins/growth/asset quality and relatively lower capitalization. BofA downgraded to Neutral from Buy (Nov 2025) after a large Q3 loss and lower expectations. Most recently, Itau BBA initiated Outperform with a $15 target (Dec 2025), highlighting loan book/profit improvements and hidden value in brokerage. Wall Street pros: upside case relies on operating improvements and sector tailwinds; downside case centers on recent losses, margin/asset-quality pressure, and potentially limited near-term upside vs peers. Politicians/influential trading: no congress trading data available in the last 90 days. Hedge funds and insiders show neutral activity (no significant recent trends).
