SU Should I Buy
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Buy SU now for a momentum/catalyst-driven trade. The technical trend is bullish (stacked moving averages) and options flow is call-leaning, while Street price targets have been moving up into multiple upcoming catalysts (Feb 4 earnings; Mar 31 Investor Day). The main near-term drawback is that SU is extended/overbought and sitting just below resistance, so upside is likely best if it breaks through ~53.9; still, given the current bullish trend and sentiment, it’s a good buy right now for an impatient investor who doesn’t want to wait for a cleaner pullback.
Trend remains bullish: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 signals a strong uptrend. Momentum is still positive but cooling: MACD histogram is above zero (0.372) yet positively contracting, implying the rally is losing some acceleration. RSI_6 at ~73.4 indicates the stock is stretched (overbought/extended) and vulnerable to brief pullbacks, but not a confirmed trend reversal. Key levels: pivot support ~51.70 (first defense), then ~49.48; overhead resistance at ~53.92 (R1) and ~55.30 (R2). With post-market around 53.40, SU is close to R1—an area where breakouts can extend quickly if buyers push through. Pattern-based short-term stats also skew modestly bullish (model indicates ~70% chance of gains with +2.34% next day and +2.13% next week).
Analyst sentiment improving with multiple target raises and at least one key upgrade (JPMorgan to Overweight) plus continued Buy ratings (Goldman).
Upcoming catalysts: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-04 (after hours) and the March 31 Investor Day (potential for refreshed targets, operational updates, and capital return messaging).
Macro/backdrop: geopolitical risk premium lifting front-month crude prices per BofA commentary; integrated model can also benefit from downstream strength (noted by JPM).
Positioning/flows: Hedge funds are net buyers with buying amount up ~175.7% QoQ, supporting demand for the shares.
Overbought/extended technical condition (RSI elevated) increases odds of a short-term pullback or consolidation, especially near resistance (~53.9).
Recent news flow includes a worker fatality at Fort Hills and an investigation—can weigh on sentiment and raise operational/safety scrutiny.
Earnings risk on Feb 4: even with a bullish setup, near-term results/guidance can trigger volatility and profit-taking.
Recent quarter showed YoY declines in revenue, net income, and EPS, which can cap multiple expansion if commodity prices soften.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue was 12.552B (-2.61% YoY), Net Income 1.619B (-19.85% YoY), EPS 1.34 (-15.72% YoY). The positive offset was profitability: Gross Margin improved to 50.59% (+3.52% YoY), suggesting better efficiency/mix despite lower top-line and earnings. Overall: growth is not strong YoY, but margin resilience supports free-cash-flow durability (important for integrated oils and buyback capacity).
Recent Street trend is net-positive: multiple price target increases (Goldman to $54 from $48; RBC to ~70; BofA to C$72) and a notable upgrade (JPMorgan to Overweight with C$75 PT). There is still some moderation: Morgan Stanley trimmed its target (C$60 from C$63) while keeping Equal Weight, and BofA remains Neutral despite raising its PT. Wall Street pros: improving operational execution, potential upside to guidance at Investor Day, and strong shareholder returns (buybacks). Cons: oil-price sensitivity, recent profit declines YoY, and event risk around operations/safety plus earnings.
