STZ Should I Buy
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STZ is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. Price is sitting below the pivot (158.98) with weakening momentum (MACD histogram negative and expanding), and the pattern-based outlook points to a negative 1-month bias (-3.07%). While Berkshire’s increased stake and a “better-than-feared” quarter are supportive, the current technical setup and YoY declines in revenue/EPS make this a hold rather than an immediate buy.
Trend/momentum is soft. MACD histogram is -0.513 and negatively expanding, signaling bearish momentum is increasing. RSI(6) at 46.69 is neutral (no oversold bounce signal). Moving averages are converging, consistent with consolidation rather than a clean uptrend. Key levels: price ~156.7 is below Pivot 158.981 (near-term bearish bias). Support sits at S1 154.584 then S2 151.868; resistance at R1 163.378 then R2 166.094. With price closer to support than resistance and momentum deteriorating, risk-reward is not attractive for an immediate chase.
Berkshire Hathaway news flow: Berkshire’s increased stake in Constellation Brands is a notable vote of confidence and can support sentiment/flows. Earnings/operations: fiscal 2026/Q3 results were framed as “better-than-feared,” with some commentary suggesting depletions may be stabilizing and margins showing improvement. Analysts: multiple firms reiterated positive stances (e.g., UBS Buy, Wells Fargo Overweight, Bernstein Outperform) with targets generally above the current price.
Fundamentals: fiscal 2026/Q3 showed clear YoY contraction (revenue -9.78%, net income -18.36%, EPS -15.04%), which can cap upside until demand re-accelerates. Category/backdrop: beer consumption concerns and sensitivity to certain consumer cohorts remain an overhang per analyst notes. Technicals: bearish MACD expansion and price below pivot increase the odds of a retest of 154.6/151.9 supports before a durable rally. Quant/pattern read: modeled odds show short-term upside potential, but a negative next-month expectation (-3.07%).
Latest quarter: fiscal 2026/Q3. Revenue was $2.2228B (-9.78% YoY), net income $502.8M (-18.36% YoY), EPS $2.88 (-15.04% YoY). The bright spot was profitability mix/efficiency: gross margin improved to 53.9% (+2.98% YoY). Overall: margins improved, but top-line and earnings are still shrinking, so the growth trend is currently negative.
Recent trend is slightly positive on targets but mixed on ratings. After Q3, several firms raised targets (Wells Fargo to 165 from 160; Bernstein to 197 from 195) and maintained bullish ratings (Overweight/Outperform). UBS kept Buy with a modest cut to 168 from 170, while Citi raised to 155 from 148 but stayed Neutral. Jefferies recently downgraded to Hold (PT 154) citing prolonged consumer fears and lack of near-term inflection. Wall Street pros: (Pros) stabilization narrative, margin strength, recovery potential from depressed levels. (Cons) ongoing demand/depletion uncertainty and visible YoY declines. Influential/insider/political activity: Berkshire Hathaway (influential investor) reportedly increased its stake (bullish signal). Hedge funds/insiders are neutral; no recent Congress trading data available. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals - AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today. - SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
