STLD Should I Buy
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BUY now. STLD is in a confirmed uptrend (bullish moving-average stack and expanding positive MACD), it’s trading close to a key pivot/support area (~177.6) after a mild pullback, and fundamentals/news flow remain constructive after Q4 results (EPS beat, strong YoY growth). Options positioning (put-call ratios < 1) and heavy hedge-fund buying reinforce a bullish bias. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: - AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today. - SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently. With an impatient profile, the current level near support is a reasonable entry rather than waiting for a “perfect” pullback; near-term upside is most likely capped by resistance in the 183–187 zone unless steel pricing momentum accelerates.
Trend is bullish: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 confirms price structure to the upside. MACD histogram is positive (0.333) and expanding, supporting continued upward momentum. RSI(6)=58.3 is neutral-to-bullish (not overbought), leaving room for another leg higher. Key levels: Pivot support ~177.6 (first support band), then ~171.7. Resistance: ~183.5 (R1) and ~187.1 (R2). Given price ~179.6, risk/reward is favorable if support holds, but expect supply to show up near 183–187.
results showed strong YoY improvement: revenue +14%, net income +28%, EPS +34%, with record steel shipments and an EPS beat reported in the news. Management commentary was optimistic for the steel sector in
Macro/industry backdrop: expectations that steel tariffs remain firm and imports decline can support domestic pricing power. Positioning/support: hedge funds are aggressively buying (reported +527% QoQ increase in buying amount).
Revenue missed some expectations despite the EPS beat, and the stock reportedly faded after the initial post-earnings reaction—suggesting the market may be demanding even stronger top-line/pricing confirmation. Sector risk: analysts still cite relatively muted demand outlook/challenging demand environment. Elevated implied volatility also implies the market expects larger swings, which can lead to sharper pullbacks even within an uptrend.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Growth trends were clearly positive YoY: Revenue $4.414B (+14.0% YoY), Net Income $266.0M (+28.34% YoY), EPS $1.82 (+33.82% YoY). Gross margin improved to 11.83 (+5.53% YoY). Overall: profitability is improving faster than revenue, consistent with a favorable pricing/mix and operating leverage backdrop.
Recent analyst trend is net-positive on targets but mixed on ratings. Multiple firms raised price targets into the $185–$194 range (BofA/Jefferies/JPMorgan/KeyBanc/Morgan Stanley all raised), signaling improved confidence in sector pricing/profitability. Offsetting that, there were notable downgrades to Neutral/Equal Weight (UBS on valuation; Morgan Stanley to Equal Weight) despite higher targets—implying Wall Street sees less upside from here after the run, but still acknowledges stronger industry conditions. Wall Street ‘pros’: tariffs/import decline and improving profitability. ‘cons’: valuation and demand uncertainty. Politicians/congress: no recent congress trading data provided. Insiders: neutral (no significant recent trend).
