Should I Buy STEL? STEL 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Stellar Bancorp Inc (STEL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

39.170

1 Day change

1.21%

52 Week Range

39.410

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

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STEL is not a good buy right now. The stock is extended/overbought after the announced $2B sale to Prosperity Bancshares (deal-arb dynamics), which typically caps near-term upside while leaving you exposed to deal timing/approval/spread risk. With no proprietary buy signals today and technicals showing overbought conditions near resistance, the risk/reward for a new, impatient entry is unattractive.

Technical Analysis

Trend is bullish but stretched.

Momentum: MACD histogram +0.517 and expanding (bullish continuation signal).
Overbought: RSI(6) 85.336 (very overbought; elevated pullback risk).
Moving averages: Bullish alignment (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), confirming an uptrend.
Levels: Pivot 34.376; R1 36.544 already cleared; price (post-market 37.14) is approaching R2 37.883, a nearby resistance zone.
Pattern-based forecast: +0.62% next day, +7.12% next week, but -2.39% next month—consistent with a near-term pop followed by mean reversion.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Positive Catalysts

- Definitive acquisition announced: Prosperity Bancshares to acquire STEL (0.3803 PB shares + $11.36 cash), expected close Q2 2026—deal certainty can support the price.
- Acquirer (Prosperity) reported strong 2025 results (net income up 13.1%), supporting perceived ability to close and integrate.
- Underlying technical trend remains bullish (positive MACD, bullish MA stack).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

~
and nearing resistance (R2 ~37.883), increasing near-term downside risk.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Growth was modest but positive:

Revenue: $106.584M, +0.80% YoY.
Net income: $26.148M, +3.71% YoY.
EPS: $0.51, +8.51% YoY. Overall: steady profitability improvement, but not the type of acceleration that typically justifies chasing an overbought, deal-arb-priced stock.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating or price target change data was provided. Practically, the current setup is primarily deal-driven: Wall Street’s 'pro' view would focus on merger completion value and certainty; the 'con' view would focus on limited upside beyond the deal terms and the risk that approvals/timing or the acquirer’s share price widens the spread. Congress trading: no recent data available.

2 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast STEL stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for STEL is 32.5 USD with a low forecast of 32 USD and a high forecast of 33 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 38.700

Low

Averages

32.5

High

Current: 38.700

Low

Averages

32.5

High

Keefe Bruyette

Market Perform

Outperform

upgrade

$33 -> $44

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Price Target

$33 -> $44

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

upgrade

Market Perform

Outperform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette upgraded Stellar Bancorp (STEL) to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $44, up from $33. The firm cites the pending deal with Prosperity Bancshares (PB), which accelerates the latter's return to high-teen ROTCE and improves an "already strong deposit base", the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Keefe Bruyette

Market Perform

maintain

$32 -> $33

2025-10-27

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Price Target

$32 -> $33

2025-10-27

maintain

Market Perform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on Stellar Bancorp to $33 from $32 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares.

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STEL Should I Buy

STEL Should I Buy

Should You Buy Stellar Bancorp Inc (STEL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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