STBA Should I Buy
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Buy now. STBA is in a bullish technical uptrend (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 with expanding positive MACD), sentiment is improving (analyst upgrade + new $100M buyback + dividend raise), and insider activity is notably positive (buying up sharply). With price ~42.65, the next upside test is the 43.37 resistance; a break/close above it opens room toward ~44.33 and then the $46 bull-case target from Janney. For an impatient buyer, the setup is favorable despite being close to first resistance.
Trend is bullish: moving averages are stacked positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating a sustained uptrend. Momentum is supportive: MACD histogram is +0.175 and expanding, suggesting strengthening upside momentum. RSI(6) at ~64 is constructive (not overbought yet, but approaching the upper-neutral zone). Key levels: pivot 41.83 is near-term support; below that, S1 40.28. Overhead resistance is R1 43.37 (first meaningful hurdle); a push through targets R2 44.33. Given the current post-market price ~42.65, the chart favors continuation, but near-term may chop as it presses into R1.
Capital returns: company announced a $100M share buyback program (per analyst commentary), supportive of EPS and downside support.
Dividend growth: board approved $0.36/share dividend (+$0.02 YoY), reinforcing shareholder-friendly policy and stability narrative.
Analyst sentiment improved: Janney upgrade to Buy with $46 fair value after a “sound quarter,” highlighting better-than-expected net interest income and margin and “buildable” trends into
Insider trend: insiders are buying, with buying amount up ~1717% over the last month (strong internal confidence signal).
Near-term technical friction: price is approaching R1 resistance (~43.37); failure to break could cause a short-term stall/pullback toward ~41.83 pivot.
Options market signals are limited due to low volume/open interest in the provided snapshot (reduced sentiment read-through).
Wall Street view is mixed despite the upgrade: KBW remains Market Perform with a $44 target, implying more limited upside near current levels.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q4. Growth was positive but not explosive: Revenue $98.10M (+13.54% YoY), Net Income $33.97M (+2.73% YoY), EPS $0.89 (+3.49% YoY). This suggests improving top-line momentum while bottom-line growth is steadier, consistent with a bank benefiting from margin dynamics but still facing normal operating/credit-cost constraints.
Recent trend is improving. On 2026-01-26, Janney Montgomery Scott upgraded STBA to Buy from Neutral with a $46 fair value estimate, citing a sound quarter, better NII/NIM than expected, the $100M buyback, and improving loan-growth outlook into 2026. On the same date, Keefe Bruyette (KBW) raised its price target to $44 from $42 but maintained Market Perform. Wall Street pros: better margin/NII trajectory, shareholder returns (buyback/dividend), and improving forward trends. Wall Street cons: some firms still see the stock closer to fairly valued in the low-to-mid $40s, implying upside may be more incremental unless fundamentals accelerate. Politicians/congress: no recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.
