SRFM Should I Buy
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SRFM is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The stock is in a clear downtrend, momentum is still deteriorating (negative MACD expanding), and price is sitting just below/around near-term support with statistical bias pointing to further weakness over the next week. With no proprietary buy signal and heavy insider selling, the setup does not favor an immediate entry.
Trend/momentum: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), confirming a sustained downtrend. MACD histogram is negative (-0.0782) and negatively expanding, suggesting selling pressure is still increasing rather than stabilizing.
Oscillators: RSI_6 is 24.43, which is effectively oversold/very weak short-term momentum. This can produce brief bounces, but in strong downtrends oversold can persist.
Levels: Pivot 2.438 is well above current price (~2.04 post-market), reinforcing that price is trading below key equilibrium. Support: S1 2.087 (being tested/broken) and S2 1.87 (next downside area). Resistance: R1 2.79 then R2 3.007; any rebound faces substantial overhead supply.
Price action context: Regular session was -4.72% with only a small post-market uptick (+0.99%), which looks more like stabilization than reversal.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals:
Pattern-based forecast: Similar-pattern analysis suggests a 70% chance of -4% over the next week, aligning with the bearish technicals.
to support an electric aircraft initiative; this is a constructive narrative catalyst for long-term positioning in electric air mobility. Analyst maintains a Buy rating and highlights continued execution and improving airline profitability (per Canaccord commentary).
Downtrend remains intact with worsening momentum (MACD negative and expanding) and price below key pivot levels. Insiders are selling aggressively (selling amount up 1391.19% over the last month), which is a strong sentiment headwind. Dilution risk flagged by analyst commentary (convert-related). Short-term pattern stats skew negative (expected weakness over the next week).
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew modestly to $29.17M (+2.77% YoY). Net income improved to -$27.21M (122.60% YoY improvement, i.e., less negative), indicating progress, but profitability is still not achieved on a consolidated basis. EPS fell to -0.64 (-31.91% YoY), and gross margin dropped further to -3.13 (down -27.88% YoY), showing ongoing margin pressure despite top-line growth.
Recent trend: Canaccord reiterated Buy but trimmed price target slightly to $3.50 from $3.75 (2025-11-14). Wall Street pros view: Pros—execution on transformation plan, improving airline profitability, balance-sheet focus and runway improvement. Cons—dilution risk from the convert, still-loss-making overall with weak/negative margins, and the market price action is not confirming the bullish thesis yet.
